Buy and hemorrhage threatens the financial health of real life families

Hedge Fund Consultant Michael Belkin sees the case for a 40% stock market drop in the coming 12-15 months. Belkin joins Sam Mamudi to discuss. Here is a direct link.

For all the many people who are still holding equities at present levels because their financial adviser insists that timing market cycles is impossible to do. Please awaken from your marketing-induced slumber and read this: Academic Researcher silenced by threats to get him fired from his job after showing dangers of buy-and hold investing strategies.

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Why the commodities boom likely peaked with the credit bubble

Societe Generale’s Dylan Grice is is sticking to his statement that Australia is “a credit bubble built on a commodity market built on an even bigger Chinese credit bubble.” In this clip he explains why he is concerned about the Australian economy and why he sees a recession in 2013:Here is a direct link.

Many of his concerns about Australia mirror many of our own concerns about Canada over the next couple of years.

For more on the oppressive debt levels plaguing Canadians (now estimated at a whopping 165% debt to disposable income in Q2 2012) see: Canadian household debt approaching peak US levels

With the domestic economy weakened more than ever by household indebtedness, the Canadian dollar is tumbling this morning on dovish words from the BOC’s Mark Carney suggesting that the global slowdown is hurting Canadian exports, revoking the idea that Canadian policy rates are likely to be increased anytime soon:

“Elevated global uncertainty is holding back global economic growth and, thus, the demand for Canadian exports,” Carney said Monday. “There is some evidence that global uncertainty is affecting domestic activity.” See: What Mark Carney didn’t say

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The self-destruction of the 1%

The history of humans has some constant themes. An excellent Op-ed in the NY Times this weekend reminds us of how the seeds of economic and social misery have always been sown in the inclination of the haves to pull up the social ladder after themselves once they have managed to climb to the top.

“IN the early 14th century, Venice was one of the richest cities in Europe. At the heart of its economy was the colleganza, a basic form of joint-stock company created to finance a single trade expedition. The brilliance of the colleganza was that it opened the economy to new entrants, allowing risk-taking entrepreneurs to share in the financial upside with the established businessmen who financed their merchant voyages.

Venice’s elites were the chief beneficiaries. Like all open economies, theirs was turbulent. Today, we think of social mobility as a good thing. But if you are on top, mobility also means competition. In 1315, when the Venetian city-state was at the height of its economic powers, the upper class acted to lock in its privileges, putting a formal stop to social mobility with the publication of the Libro d’Oro, or Book of Gold, an official register of the nobility. If you weren’t on it, you couldn’t join the ruling oligarchy.

The political shift, which had begun nearly two decades earlier, was so striking a change that the Venetians gave it a name: La Serrata, or the closure. It wasn’t long before the political Serrata became an economic one, too. Under the control of the oligarchs, Venice gradually cut off commercial opportunities for new entrants. Eventually, the colleganza was banned. The reigning elites were acting in their immediate self-interest, but in the longer term, La Serrata was the beginning of the end for them, and for Venetian prosperity more generally. By 1500, Venice’s population was smaller than it had been in 1330. In the 17th and 18th centuries, as the rest of Europe grew, the city continued to shrink.” Read: The self-destruction of the 1 percent

Today we are repeating many of the same mistakes:

“Even as the winner-take-all economy has enriched those at the very top, their tax burden has lightened. Tolerance for high executive compensation has increased, even as the legal powers of unions have been weakened and an intellectual case against them has been relentlessly advanced by plutocrat-financed think tanks. In the 1950s, the marginal income tax rate for those at the top of the distribution soared above 90 percent, a figure that today makes even Democrats flinch. Meanwhile, of the 400 richest taxpayers in 2009, 6 paid no federal income tax at all, and 27 paid 10 percent or less. None paid more than 35 percent.

Historically, the United States has enjoyed higher social mobility than Europe, and both left and right have identified this economic openness as an essential source of the nation’s economic vigor. But several recent studies have shown that in America today it is harder to escape the social class of your birth than it is in Europe. The Canadian economist Miles Corak has found that as income inequality increases, social mobility falls — a phenomenon Alan B. Krueger, the chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, has called the Great Gatsby Curve.”

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