Juggling Dynamite

Economic data this morning all confirming the thesis of incoming recession in the US:

• US initial jobless claims for the week came in at 386K, which is 21K higher than expected and last week’s 350K was upward revised up 352K

• The Philly Fed posted a July index print at -12.9, its third negative month in a row (expectations were for -8.0)

• Existing home sales were down 5.4% month to month in June and their biggest drop in 16 months as foreclosure supply surges.

Meanwhile the Euro continues to slide as Italian and Spanish bond yields spike far above either country’s ability to pay (chart below) and Germany warns that Spain must be responsible for aiding its own banks.

Stock and commodity markets, in their ever hopeful state of denial, are so far staging yet another anemic rally on another day of “two guys trading” volume in bets that the quickening of the global downturn will soon force central banks to flood more liquidity into the financial system. North American bond markets and the US dollar remain unconvinced as both continue to see huge global inflows.

We look forward to the next tranche of panic-induced intervention, as the sooner we get it, the sooner the recognition that it will not avert the ongoing global recession and nor arrest the necessary downside needed in asset markets.  Once we see this reversion to math and free market forces, we will finally be getting somewhere useful for investors and restoring the real economy.

Women in Sub-Saharan Africa on the whole face more challenges than men. Care for Kenya works with women in Kibera and Kisumu, most of whom are HIV positive, to empower them both socially and economically. Through this two-pronged approach women experience better livelihoods and stronger families. I first met founder Daleela Farina at a luncheon in New York in 2009. I was impressed by her ambition and hope in this project. Three years later they are still working away every day to make a difference in real lives and against all odds.

For those who are fortunate to live in more advantageous parts of the world, and in families where both mothers and fathers are committed to the support, care and nurturing of their children, Care for Kenya is an amazing reference point for our gratitude. You can learn more about the cause and its work here.

Care for Kenya from Care For Kenya on Vimeo.

Bill Moyer talks with financial expert Sheila Bair about the lawlessness of our banking system and the prognosis for meaningful reform. Bair was appointed in 2006 by President George W. Bush to chair the FDIC. During the 2008 meltdown, she argued that in some cases banks were NOT too big to fail — that instead of bailouts, they should be sold off to healthier competitors. Now a senior adviser to the Pew Charitable Trusts, Bair has organized a private group of financial experts including former Fed chairman Paul Volcker, former Senators Bill Bradley and Alan Simpson, and John Reed, once the chairman of Citicorp, to explore ways to prevent the banking industry from scuttling reforms created by the Dodd-Frank Act. Here is a direct link.