Cash is not a 4 letter word

In a financial world paid to sell risk products, there is a natural disdain for holding cash. Portfolio Managers or investors who hold cash (because they see unreasonable risk on their rule set or few attractive options at current prices) are commonly labelled chickens, outcasts or hopeless pessimists. In a world where too few people have amassed ‘enough’ cash, many are desperate to quickly part with what they do have in the hopes of winning more. They don’t want to wait for favourable timing or attractive prices, they want to buy things and they want to buy them now! This is precisely why most fail to retain and grow wealth over a full business cycle. Easy come, easy go.

In all the frenzy, herd following and childish impatience, it is often forgotten that having cash is supposed to be a dream come true, a store of security and liquidity to cover future needs—a fund for future opportunity.

In this interview Jeffrey Gundlach, legendary bond manager talks about the value of cash in volatile times, and especially if the financial system blows up. It is cash that Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein had in their bunkers in hiding. Not credit cards, not gold coins–but light, easy to carry, widely accepted cash.

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

More utter nonesense on pain free solutions from the EU this morning

Markets started today with giddy hopes for a miracle cure as the EU promised another round of bail out capital for the Greek banking system without any cuts to current debt holders…they have promised to release details of their magic potion formula by the end of June.

A review of reality with Nouriel Roubini is worth watching. See the Bloomberg clip here.

To recap today’s other happy news so far:
–US housing market back in double dip, with prices nationally at 2002 levels and falling with “no relief in sight.”
–Consumer confidence is at recession levels and falling
-The new orders component of the ISM Chicago business barometer slumped 13 points to just 53.5 this morning, just 3.5 points above the key 50 reading that separates recession from expansion. The overall barometer dropped to 56.6 in May, its lowest reading since November 2009. The employment component of the index fell to 60.8, from 63.7 in April.

But wait, the EU promises to reveal proof of the tooth fairy by the end of June, I guess we should all rest easy… Bond yields quietly dropping, US 10 year note at 3.05…

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Insiders stampeding for the exits

Good article on some key factors ringing alarm bells as stock prices rally today:

“Over the last six months, corporate insiders sold over 120 million shares, while they bought just 38,000 (per CNBC). That's 3,177 times more sells than buys.
Insider sales hit a fresh high just last week, when 8,279x as much stock was sold as bought. The chart below tells the story from a long-term perspective.
The top section shows the price of the S&P 500 index. The middle graph shows a “score” representing the ratio of insiders buying to selling; a high score indicates insider buying, and a low score means insiders are selling. The bottom graph shows net volume ($ value of transactions, buys minus sales)…”

Read more here.

Posted in Main Page | Leave a comment