Economists Gary Shilling and Nouriel Roubini were both guests on Bloomberg this morning. Both have been very adept in foreseeing the macro themes playing out in the world the past few years. You can watch the Shilling clip here and the Roubini clip here.
I always find it rather ridiculous when bulls say these two were “wrong” because they did not foresee the magnitude of the stock rally from March to December 2009. (Deirdre Bolton puts this to Roubini in his clip). True they underestimated how much the stimulus-juiced stock market can bounce in the midst of secular bear trends, but while the bulls are bragging about making back some of their losses during that period, if you had listened to these guys on the macro picture, you would not have lost capital in the first place. You would have been out of the stock market before suffering the losses and been much, much further ahead… Such is the ridiculous nature of most financial commentary today; purposely blurring the forest with the trees…
Reminds me of a favourite John Galbraith quote: “It is easier to be firmly anchored in the sea of nonsense than it is to set out on the sea of meaningful thought.”
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