Juggling Dynamite

Oppenheimer's Meredith Whitney was on Bloomberg this morning explaining how the credit crunch will continue to impact banks and the broader economy over the months ahead.
Whitney is one of my favourite analysts. She is bright, well-informed, and has been refreshingly forthright in calling bullshit foul on the shell game that has supported financial profits over the past few years. She was one of the earliest Wall Street analysts to sound the alarm. She is also very good at breaking the complexity down into real life terms.
Watch the clip here

The stock market rally of the past 2 months has done nothing to refute my concern that we are only in the early stages of a bear market that will continue for the next several months. Of course I could be wrong. I cannot see the future. I can only weigh the evidence so far. But so far I believe that the preponderance of economic evidence continues to mount against the bullish case.
The fact that many stock markets have staged a rally since the March lows has been cited by some as bullish evidence that the worst is now behind us and happy days will soon be here again.
For some valuable perspective on how bear markets have historically moved, watch this May 26 clip from John Authers at the Financial Times.com: Oil and the Markets.
Great charts John. Good work.

In June 2007, I noted that 80 US Mortgage Lenders had then gone bankrupt since late 2006. We predicted that many more would follow. Today, less than 1 year later, the number has risen 225% to 260 according to Lender Implode.com. outpacing even our bearish calls. The number continues to rise weekly as the economic slowdown plays out.
Meanwhile one of the earliest bears to call the present crisis, Prof. Roubini still remains pessimistic over the economy and points out that stocks at present levels are dramatically under-pricing the length and duration of the on-going US recession: