The trouble with humans and investing

The Post did an article today on new developments in the ETF market with bull and bear units that can be used to offset market risk when prices are lofty:  “Looking for shelter in a bear market.”  
 
I was one of the sources cited in the article.  In the future, as these products become widely traded, we are looking at ways that they may be useful in our own methodology.    Its just nice to have a mainstream player in the marketplace that has the product breadth of bull and bear investment options.  Unlike almost all the other players, BetaPro does not need to sell investors on long-only strategies in order to have customers.
 
We also wanted to point out Jonathan Chevreau's blog today where he cites an internal memo from a veteran Trimark funds manager, Tye Bousada who likens the recent commodities led bull to the tech bubble of the late 90's:

“Bousada poses the following rhetorical question as well as a hint of a response: “The probability that a cycle keeps going diminishes with each passing year at an exponential rate.  It is much easier to keep growth going from year 1 to 2 than it is to keep it going from year 4 to 5.  Where are we in the streak today for global cyclicals?  Year 5.”  

Bousada makes no claim as to knowing when it will end. “We don’t know, but we do think we know how it will end.  The answer is badly for those caught up in it.”

One can't help but hear Tom Petty in our ears when we talk about this coming correction, “the waiting is the hardest part.” comes to mind.
 
But actually despite what our inner child may be screaming at us, we know from experience that although waiting can be hard to do, actually “the losing” is the much harder part.  And that is really what it all comes down to.  We get to chose,  We can either wait and profit from the coming sale, or we can jump in and lose heavily with the masses.  When we realize these are the choices, we think that it puts the waiting into some important perspective.
 
The trouble with humans and investing, is that we find it easier to talk the talk than walk the walk.  We see the need for discipline, but our common response is to want to abandon discipline if it fails to deliver results as quickly as we had hoped.  This is why most people suffer poor results and worse.
 
In our own practice we have learned over the years that clients will commonly fire a money manager for two reasons:  one, if you make them less than they believe others are making at a given point in the market cycle, and two, if they lose money.  This is what makes a money manager's job hard to do.  We must be able to stick the discipline and stay the course even when it looks to our clients that they are missing out, because we must also be careful not to lose their hard-saved money,   
 
Since we do have to chose between a rock–losing money, and a hard place–opting out of market runs that are dangerously priced.  We have learned over the years to pick the hard place. 
 
And so we must persevere with doing the right thing and protecting against loses even when the approach seems out of favour.  We must continue doing the right thing even though some clients will inevitably fire you for it and run back into the perilous seas of a bloated market.
 
Most people who have money, earn it by taking concentrated risks in their careers and business.  We invest our life energy making bets in our business and working hard at it every day.  Once we are able to carve out some savings above our spending, I see this as money we have managed to take from the”fire” and get into the pan.  Once this capital is out of the fire, the focus must be to protect and keep it for future use.  Markets, as I see it, are a risky place to blindly park ones savings.
 
Once we recognize that savings are hard-earned and difficult to amass, we must also see that they are worthy of great respect and careful investment.
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Desperately seeking some common sense

I wanted to take a break from the perils of the world's debt mountains for a moment and talk about another area that seems desperately deprived of critical thought—health.

Why do we value and nurture our health so little?  Are we humans crazy? dumb? genetically lazy?  Why do we spend so much energy raising money to fund treatment programs and yet so little energy on how to grow and preserve good health from the start?

This is absolutely nonsensical.  Researchers tell us that 70% of cancers can be avoided altogether through preemptive habits of moderation, diet, exercise and not smoking.  Not to mention a much lower incidence of other things like heart disease, diabetes and stroke.

We know that our food and environments are being poisoned and polluted by chemicals both intentionally and thoughtlessly applied.   We know that if we respected the natural life cycle of plants and animals more and stopped treating them as things we can manipulate and subjugate to our human will we would not need to pump them full of chemicals and hormones and anti-bio tics just to keep them alive.  

But intuition, research and natural order be damned, we seem determined to persevere to our own demise.  We insist on commoditizing and abusing all, even when this breeds our own suffering far and wide.

Today I went to my local Rotary luncheon.  Our club is large and works very hard raising hundreds of thousands of dollars to help fund the community dream of a local cancer care center.  Yes, if I, or someone close to me gets cancer, it will be nice to have treatment in our own community rather than  having to travel to Toronto.  That is obvious.  But while we are all working so hard at this goal, we are passing around the table plates of what Steve Pavlina so aptly calls “diseased, tortured, chemical-injected” animals and vegetables.  Not only is our food poisoning us, but its nutritional quality is only a fraction of what it was when we were kids. 

In our house, we spend about twice as much money as normal food to feed my family as much organic, natural, locally grown, free-range, bio diverse, food and personal products as I can find.  It costs us twice as much to buy organic, chemical free milk for our kids to drink than the regular fare available everywhere else.

This is how screwed up things are right now!  Individuals have to pay more to be preventative, even when the product of their actions ultimately benefits the collective good! 

If I use only green power, efficient light-bulbs, hybrid cars, less fossil-fuels, buy organic foods, eat less and exercise more, I am less net-drag on the entire eco-system.  I will pollute less, likely tax our health system remarkably less, and raise children more likely to do the same for the world they inherit.

We must take our children out for exercise now in the same way that we walk our dogs.  We are too fearful to let kids roam free like we did when I was a kid.  So kids are spending most of their time in the house, in their yard.  They are not getting exercise needed for healthy development unless they have the now unusual feature of parents who are committed to getting their kids out for “a run” of some kind everyday.

When normal weight kids are at the pool and beach now, they stand out of the crowd.  They look almost freakishly thin amid a sea of round and bulbous bodies.

To be healthy is no longer to be normal in our part of the world.  If you want your family to be fit and healthy you need to be a bit freakish about diet and exercise.  The norm is now to be unhealthy.

As David Suzuki points out we humans are selfish, but even a selfish person should see that respecting and nurturing our natural world is key to nurturing our own health.

North American governments are spending trillions in wars over oil, drugs and medical treatments while our people and planet are falling apart at the seams.  We could have green technology and better health tomorrow if we would just stop fighting nature and insisting we can have it our own way.  Our own way so far has been dumb, dumb, dumb.

Please, somebody, give us a shake.  Lets come to our senses, get a grip, wake up.  Change has to come from the bottom up.  It starts with each of us as individuals, parents, citizens.  Every action that we take matters.  It all adds up to the collective “one.”  None of our individual choices are irrelevant.  For now we do have to pay more to buy sensible, healthy products that help our health and the health of our planet.  Buy them anyway.  Create consumer demand for the right things.  Throw our weight around in the right places.  Supply follows demand eventually.  Businesses will learn to make money off the healthful solutions, and this will be a win, win all around.

We have the technology, we can do this.  Lets start today.  Who's with me?

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How much of this sub-prime iceberg is still beneath the water?

At our firm we have been worried about the extreme abuse of credit/leverage this cycle.  We have been talking about it as a main issue for many months now.  Recently more main stream commentators are also voicing concern about how to fathom the depths of this issue.

As I have noted before, yes credit derivatives have spread out the credit risk, but now it is so widespread, with leverage on leverage, that it is very hard to appreciate the extent of the risk until a major shock reveals it.

Yesterday S&P said it is reviewing the “global universe” of Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) that contain subprime mortgages.  They plan to change the methods they use to rate existing and new mortgage bonds to reflect the increased likelihood of mortgage defaults and losses.

S&P now estimates US property values will decline 8% on average between 2006 and 2008.

While most of the securities being reviewed by S&P have ratings of BBB+, BBB, or BBB-, some were rated as high as AA.  They now say that doubt has been cast over some of the data they used because of unprecedented levels of misrepresentation and fraud, combined with potentially shoddy initial loan data. Funny they did not notice this funny business before this.  Perhaps the record fees they were earning for rating the pools clouded their vision a little?

Late Tuesday Moody's downgraded 399 residential mortgage-backed securities ($5.2 bln) that it had recently put under review for the same reasons cited by S&P.

Humans are nothing if not predictable.  Each generation makes the same old mistakes about excess leverage in their own new way.

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