Auto bubble deflating

Ultra-easy credit conditions in 2020-21 conditioned many to think that prices–from vehicles to homes, consumer goods, crypto, stocks, junk debt, et al.–only go up. Painful lessons are the natural aftermath of such misguided thinking.

In the July University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, 15% of respondents said that interest rates were now impeding their ability to buy a vehicle; this was the same level as October 2008 amid the great financial crisis and up from 4% at the end of 2021. Meanwhile, auto loan defaults are accelerating, and repo activities are helping to balloon the used vehicle supply as dealers (like many homeowners in denial) hold on to inventory, hoping that peak prices will return soon. Classic bust cycle.

Used Car prices Update. Car Bubble is slowly letting out air. Here is a direct video link.

“There has never been a time in history when used cars have appreciated; this has taught so many bad habits.”

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‘Free’ trading is a predatory hook to abuse the unsuspecting

Better Markets CEO Dennis Kelleher joined Bloomberg TV’s The Close to discuss the anniversary of Robinhood’s IPO, its predatory practices, & how we can actually democratize #WallStreet. Here is a direct video link.

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Housing leading the economy into recession

Eric Basmajian explains what the 2022 housing downturn means for the coming recession. Here is a direct video link.

He further reviews the significance of other economic indicators in this audio segment.

In Episode 263 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Eric Basmajian. Eric is an economic cycle analyst and the Founder of EPB Macro Research, an economics-based research firm focusing on inflection points in economic growth and the impact on asset prices.

The chart below from Cornerstone Research depicts Eric’s point about macro forces being far more impactful on stock prices than individual company news. Shifting sector weights to keep holding stocks heading into a recession is like shifting deckchairs on the Titanic. Yet, long-always remains the modus 0perandi of the fee-focused financial sector.

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