Juggling Dynamite

Danielle offers a good overview of recent data and why the Fed has ended QE and is now determined to start hiking rates into plummeting global growth and tumbling financial markets.

At the same time, you gotta love all the sites that have popped to attract so-called ‘traders’ this cycle.  Here’s a prediction:  when this bear finishes its mauling, there will be a whole lot fewer people interested in trading as well as sites trying to profit from them.

Danielle Dimartino Booth, founder of Quill Intelligence, sits down with Blake Morrow from Traders Summit to discuss the fast-ramping inflation in the USA and how the Fed will handle interest rates going into next month and the rest of 2022. Danielle also talks about how the United States Federal Reserve may be able to tame inflation. She also discussed the US yield curve and how the Fed may be hiking into already a stagflation environment. Danielle tackles the topic of the politization of the Federal Reserve as well. Here is a direct video link.

The subscriber-based treadmill and fitness company amassed a cult following in the early days of the pandemic, pushing the stock price to euphoric highs. Then everything changed. Individual company narratives vary, but stock declines over 70% are typical after extreme over-valuations.

Peloton has been on a wild ride, announcing its CEO was stepping down and thousands of jobs would be cut, despite seeing a surge in sales early in the pandemic. Here’s why Peloton became a viral success, and why it’s spinning out now.  Here is a direct video link.

This segment is a worthwhile discussion on global credit markets, credit creation, what they are telling us about the global economy and why China cannot sustain global demand this time.

Economist Danielle DiMartino Booth does a virtual interview with Alfonso Peccatiello. Alfonso Peccatiello is a former Head of a $20 bn Investment Portfolio at a large bank and a passionate global macro investor. Here is a direct video link.

Below is Lacy Hunt’s chart of the U.S. loan to deposit ratio since 1973 (courtesy of John Mauldin) with the start of past recessions (marked with red dots) and the cyclical trough in credit creation (in blue), an average of 47 months later.  The latest reading in loans to deposits is the lowest of the last 50 years and has seen no recovery since the 2020 recession began 24 months ago.  This historically informative indicator suggests that while the 2020 recession was interrupted by pandemic emergency support, the downturn continues as credit cliffs follow credit highs.