Tumbling into 2022

Growth and inflation are in retreat, stocks are tumbling, corporate debt spreads are leaping, and yield curves are flattening with the economically clairvoyant U.S 10 and 2-year spread .38 today, from an optimistic 1.59% peak in March 2021.  This is not about Ukraine.  This is a ‘free-money’ debt-enabled consumption and gambling frenzy that’s ending with central banks out of time still pumping cash and holding policy rates at zero.  Now they are expected to hike aggressively—two words:  bonne chance.

This discussion from February 3 offers some data-rich counterpoints to the multiple-hike consensus view.

The Fed’s bark will not turn to bite, and we provide a framework on how to make money by betting against the multiple rate hikes now being widely discounted across all asset classes.  Here is a direct video link.

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Madness and mayhem driving Canadian home prices

Saturday’s Report on Business offered some rich insight on Canada’s housing mania.

Saying that real estate investing is “not like get-rich-quick because it’s something that takes time,” one of the featured couples goes on to explain that, in less than two years, they have gone from driving a dump truck full time to buying and optioning multiple ‘investment’ properties, by leveraging debt on debt.  Can’t help but wonder which prudent lenders are fronting these funds?

But not to worry, they’re “feeling more financially secure” now, and their friends are looking to them for advice on how to “get involved”.   This will all end swimmingly, no doubt.  See Real estate frenzy rips through Canadian housing market:

“Jacqueline Francis, 41, and her partner Leo, 40, started seriously getting into real estate investing in 2020. They did it to give their three children a better life. “We want to begin to create wealth for them, give them opportunities that we haven’t had,” said Mr. Francis, who grew up in a small, roach-infested three-bedroom apartment in Toronto with his four siblings and parents.

Before they started investing, Mr. Francis worked full time as a dump truck driver, hauling material out of construction sites. Many of the sites were residential real estate projects and his world revolved around developers and other professionals in the industry. At the same time, some of the couple’s friends and relatives were investing or becoming realtors. The Francises described real estate as being a constant presence in their lives, so they decided to give it a try and enrolled in investing courses. They decided to focus on small apartments also known as multi-residential buildings. “It’s not like get-rich-quick because it’s something that takes time,” Ms. Francis said.

The couple, who live in a house in Durham, Ont., own a condo in Toronto, two multi-residential buildings in Niagara – a 16-unit building and a six-plex – and have made deposits on two preconstruction units. They are also expected to close on a 12-plex in London. They used their home equity line of credit to buy the first multi-residential property in 2020 and raised cash from friends and family to buy the smaller one in 2021.

The couple described feeling more financially secure and say they will soon have more freedom. They said their friends are noticing and are starting to ask about real estate investing. “They want to know what we’re doing,” Mr. Francis said. “They want to get involved.”

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Danielle’s biweekly market update

Danielle was a guest with Jim Goddard on Talk Digital Network, talking about recent developments in the world economy and markets.  You can listen to an audio clip of the segment here.

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