Juggling Dynamite

As I discussed last week, in Inflation hype past the boil, the pandemic-inspired leap in consumption helped drive bottlenecks, extra precautionary ordering, and general chaos in international supply chains.

As shown below (courtesy of Isabelle.net.com), the initial squeeze on supply helped to inspire the most dramatic commodity inflation since another infamous market top in 1973 (p.s. from January 1973 to December 1974, the economy then tanked, and global stock markets entered a 694-day 45% plunge).
Today, consensus inflation expectations remain high even though most commodity prices have dropped significantly over the past six months.  As Rosenberg Research points out, only milk, cotton, flour and butter are still rising at this point. At the same time, other economically-sensitive staples have sharply reversed course led by a few standouts such as lumber -64%, iron ore -61%, steel -25%, aluminum -20%, and zinc -15%, so far.

Commodities are infamous for boom-bust cycles because high prices simultaneously encourage supply while curtailing demand.  This time is unlikely to be different.

And about that semiconductor shortage…the 12-month change in China’s credit impulse (shown below in blue since 2009 courtesy of Julien Bettel) has led to the year-over-year change in global chip sales (below in grey) with a lag of ll-months.   As usual, production and shipments are ramping while sales and stockpiling appear to have peaked.

With all the climate crisis commotion, the most obvious step is for governments globally to stop enabling the bankrupt fossil fuel sector so that free-market forces can quickly transition to already available renewable power systems.  ReThinX points out the obvious in The fastest route to net-zero is not a carbon tax:  it’s ending the $6 trillion/year fossil fuel bailout.  Here’s a taste:

What keeps societies locked-in to burning coal, oil and gas are utility monopolies supported by $6 trillion dollars a year (or $11 million a minute) of government subsidies – without which these industries would collapse under their own economic dead-weight.  

Trying to impose carbon pricing on fossil fuels while giving them trillion dollar handouts is like trying to put out a fire in a burning building by throwing out bits of burning wood while repeatedly dousing the whole structure with petrol. It doesn’t make any sense. 

The first thing we need to do to put out the fire is to stop throwing petrol everywhere. Then we’ll be in a position to put out the flames for good.   

In this context, the most effective way to accelerate the phase-out of fossil fuels is by creating open, transparent and competitive electric energy markets. This doesn’t require carbon pricing, but rather removing trillion dollar government hand-outs to incumbent fossil fuel industries, and ensuring individuals, not just utilities, have rights to generate, store and trade electricity. For instance, the new electric Ford F150 has a battery with the technology to power the average American home for about three days. Is it really necessary for every F150 owner to ask the utility for permission to power their own home with their own truck? 

In other words, we need free-market capitalism and individual freedom in electric energy markets…

Government subsidies and utility monopolies are serving to keep technically bankrupt incumbent energy industries alive by providing them an unnecessary lifeline. Expensive and unproven ‘solutions’ like carbon capture and storage only promise to prolong this lifeline to delay the inevitable. This poses the biggest obstacle to clean energy deployment.  

Our weekend business panel takes a closer look at COP26 and global efforts to help create a greener economy. What role do corporations, investors and consumers have in helping to fight climate change?  Here is a direct video link.

Further to transitioning Canada and other countries to net-zero GHG emissions by 2035, with an 80% reduction within eight years, The Solutions Project at Stanford University has already devised the blueprints for individual cities and countries to get there with technology that is already widely available.  And as outlined below, the upside is not just lowered GHG but also less pollution, better health, lower sick-care costs, and a whopping 63% reduction in energy costs overall.

Here’s a timeline to transition 145 countries to 100% #WindWaterSolar by 2035, with 80% by 2030

These plans keep the grid stable, save 5.3 million lives/year from pollution by 2035, reduce energy costs 63% & reduce social costs 92%https://t.co/NoNdPe2xWa #WWS @COP26 #COP26 https://t.co/7c2AZGCOow pic.twitter.com/EQh8TVFewz

— Mark Z. Jacobson (@mzjacobson) November 6, 2021