Juggling Dynamite

Episode 3 of the Rethinking Humanity series by @RethinkX reveals that the same complex processes that drive the patterns of technological change can be found at the level of civilizations, driving the pattern of human history. This pattern explains why and how leading civilizations grow and collapse.

Early humans escaped the Age of Survival by seizing the opportunities of technology convergence. They forged new production and organizing systems that set in motion the Age of Extraction, a zero-sum game of winners and losers, re-versioned over centuries of expansion, colonization and collapse. These stories lead us to today’s global organizing system. With nowhere left to expand, we must transform.

This is the third of an eight-part series.  Here is a direct video link.

China’s housing slump, energy shortages and spreading defaults among its property developers dragged down economic growth in the third quarter.  As shown below, gross domestic product rose 4.9% from a year earlier (National Bureau of Statistics), below consensus expectations and -3% from the officially reported 7.9% annualized rate in Q2.

As property woes spread, Chinese residents saved about 34% of their disposable income in the first nine months of 2021, up from an average of about 32% from 2017 to 2019.

So far, Beijing is not rushing to ‘stimulate,’ increasing the probability that growth will weaken further in the fourth quarter.  China Beige Book analysts estimate that China’s economic growth rate could tumble to 1 to 2% over the next decade, significantly denting demand for global commodites.

See: China property and energy crisis deliver blow to GDP growth and this direct video link for further discussion.

Hoisington Management’s Third Quarter 2021 Review and Outlook (5 pages) is now available here and well worth taking in.  The bottom line is that the recent bout of supply-driven inflation is likely to be self-correcting because the pandemic dramatically increased debt throughout an already highly indebted global economy.  The debt weight further reduces forward growth prospects and increases the deflationary gap (level of real GDP below potential), which erodes demand and inflation once more.  Full circle:

During the 1970s, unlike currently, the velocity of money was stable (although not constant). As a result, the aggregate demand curve (C + I + G +X = M x V) also shifted steadily outward. This allowed the inflation from the supply side disruptions to become entrenched. Currently, however, the decline in money growth and velocity indicate that the inflation-induced supply-side shocks will eventually be reversed. In this environment, Treasury bond yields could temporarily be pushed higher in response to inflation. These sporadic moves will not be maintained. The trend in longer yields remains downward.