Juggling Dynamite

Backward-looking job revisions show the US and Canadian economies have been producing fewer and fewer jobs amid rising unemployment. Mass layoffs are due next. EPB Macro’s Eric Basmajian explains in the segments below.

This video analyzes why elevated profit margins are giving businesses more room and time to absorb slowing economic conditions without resorting to wide-scale layoffs. But the labor market cracks are widening. Here is a direct video link.

Home prices follow employment lower. This video analyzes the sequence of the residential housing cycle. Here is a direct video link.

Statistics Canada housing data shows that, in 2021, across the provinces, 15–27% of houses were owned as an investment/secondary property (i.e., not an owner’s primary residence)—with PEI 27%, Nova Scotia 20%, Ontario/Manitoba/New Brunswick/B.C. generally in the mid-teens.

Condos skewed higher, with 30–42% of condo apartments owned as secondary properties in the provinces studied. (Perspectives Journal).

In related data, as shown in the table below, 30 to 40% of the property stock in Ontario, BC, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia is owned by multiple property owners. (Statistics Canada).

In the US, Reventure estimates that 25% of the housing stock is owned by those who do not use it as a primary residence.

Aging and leveraged owners are increasingly looking to downsize real estate exposure in many areas all at once. This is a macro theme with legs.

Real estate investors are releasing a major housing market warning, with Redfin reporting the biggest drop in investor purchases in 2 years occurring in Q2 2025. This data from Redfin suggests real estate investors are continuing to exit the housing market, and that buying conditions are still very weak in 2025. The result is that inventory and price cuts are now rising in markets with the most investor exposure, resulting in home price declines. Here is a direct video link.

Find a house for cheap in Florida, sellers are stuck and Zillow is NOT showing the price drops in the MLS. Here is a direct video link.

Move Smartly Editor and Host, Urmi, once again speaks to John and Steve on what is going on in the data and on the ground in Toronto and Vancouver. This month, more sales but some surprising price drops continuing not only in condos but house sector. Plus, how will interest rates, economic uncertainty and headlines about a condo market collapse play into consumer sentiment? And, an Ontario real estate brokerage scandal puts (another) black eye on the industry. Here is a direct video link.

The Toronto area saw the average home price drop for the seventh consecutive year-over-year decline in August. Detached home prices, down 10%, fell more than other property types.

The average sales price for all property types has dropped by more than 23 per cent in the GTA (Greater Toronto Area) since the February 2022 price peak. See, Toronto-area home prices continue to slide — with detached homes plummeting 10%:

It’s difficult to say why prices for detached homes dropped more than other property types, Mercer said, but the variation in detached homes from the more affordable to the ultra-luxury segment can greatly impact the drop in detached home prices.

For sales, semi-detached homes saw the largest sales increase year-over-year by almost 18 per cent. That’s because the supply is more affordable for single-family homebuyers and a more “realistic entry-point” for those looking to buy their first property, he added.

“This is even with lower borrowing costs and selling prices over the past year,” he added.

Meanwhile, in cottage country, those who bought during the pandemic are struggling to unload those properties. Many would-be sellers are planning to relist in the spring.

John Fincham, broker at Re/Max Parry Sound Muskoka Realty, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss the Ontario cottage market. Here is a direct video link.

Truth Is: Bad News! In the last 6 weeks a lot of Realtors & Mortgage Influencers are spinning the story Ontario Real Estate is BACK BABY! Let’s take a close look at reality & the reality is NO GOOD. Let’s look at the truth about Cottage Country Closed, 905 Value Free Fall, some 416 low-rise getting wobbly. Here is a direct video link.