Juggling Dynamite

The story of how the Nature Conservancy, the world’s biggest environmental group, became a dealer of meaningless carbon offsets.  Here is a direct video link.

I’ve often mentioned that bankruptcy filings usually peak some 18 months after a recession ends.  Government support and payment deferrals have delayed bankruptcies flowing from the COVID-19 triggered depression, but the deadwood is building all the same.

The go-to maneuver has been to keep raising capital at rock bottom yields from risk-indiscriminate lenders and investors.  The chart on the lower left shows the record debt issuance sold in March and the one beside the record equity offerings sold to the public, year to date.  Needless to say, capital risk has not been appropriately discounted.

This segment is a worthwhile update.  Here is a direct video link.

Parabolic lumber prices are not due to a lack of trees. Consolidation in mills over the past couple of decades is part of the story.  But most of all, the familiar forces of cheap credit, rampant financial speculation and stockpiling are all at work here.  Once again, we will find that financial bubbles are neither sustainable nor productive for the real economy.

Demand for lumber has skyrocketed during the pandemic, sending prices to all-time highs. This video explains what’s driving the lumber boom, who’s profiting, and why those growing the trees aren’t reaping the benefits. Here is a direct video link.

This chart shows the price move in lumber futures year to date. Jack’s beanstalk had to be cut down. This one is destined to collapse of its own weight.  Meanwhile, the related spike paid for home construction and other products in this period will end up as sunk costs.