Self-dealing allows PE to keep marking asset values to fantasy

As new outside investors become increasingly difficult to find, private equity firms are finding that often the best firm to sell their companies to is…themselves. Yep, you read that right.

Private equity firms are increasingly keeping themselves afloat, extracting cash and boosting their fees through self-sold transactions.  See: PEs Sell Firms to Themselves Twice Over to Navigate Deal Drought.

Nearly 20% of private-equity exits in the first half of 2025 went through continuation vehicles — a process that’s exploded in popularity as private equity firms limp through a dealmaking drought (charted below since 2020).

CVs enable private equity firms to retain an asset by transferring it from one fund to another, while allowing LPs to extract cash from the transfer if they wish.

Self-dealing enables companies to sidestep market price discovery, mark their asset values to fantasy and boost their management fees while keeping existing investors believing that their equity value is increasing.

Yieldstreet is one of the best-known examples of American startups that has been hyped to the public with the stated mission of democratizing access to assets such as real estate and private asset markets.

Now, it has come to light that some Yieldstreet customers who participated in its real estate deals face huge losses on investments that they say turned out to be far riskier than they thought. See, When invest like the 1% fails: How Yieldstreet’s real estate bets left customers with massive losses:

Of 30 deals that CNBC reviewed information on, four have been declared total losses by Yieldstreet. Of the rest, 23 are deemed to be on “watchlist” by the startup as it seeks to recoup value for investors, sometimes by raising more funds from members.

Yieldstreet said some of its real estate funds were “significantly impacted” by rising interest rates and market conditions.
Here is a direct video link.

This should all be illegal, but this is the world we are working with.

US President Trump recently signed an executive order instructing the Secretary of Labor to confer with the Secretary of the Treasury and the Securities and Exchange Commission to determine the most feasible way of adding private equity, real estate, digital currency (crypto), and other alternative investments to individual retirement accounts like 401(k) plans.

This is all sure to bring more profits for product sellers and disastrous outcomes for individual investors.

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Would-be-sellers dwarf buyers in many markets

The housing unaffordability crisis is not just about current interest rates, which are historically average (4.71% 5-year fixed in Canada and 6.57% 30-year fixed in America).

Homebuilders are already offering buy-down rates in the 3 percent range in the US and Canada. Still, new home sales have contracted year over year, while the inventory of new US single-family homes for sale has risen to the highest level since October 2007 (shown below since 1965, courtesy of Charlie Bilello).

The primary issue is that home prices have risen twice as much as the median household income over the past decade (shown below, since 2015).

The US median-priced home for sale, $435k (NAR), is now 5.5x the current median household income ($79k), making it the most unaffordable US market in history.

In Canada, the math is worse: the average home sale price nationally in July ($693k CREA, down 18% since February 2022) was 8.2x the median household income of $84k (before tax), 9.5x the median after tax income of $73k.

In addition, pandemic-inflated prices are now meeting tariff-inspired increases on top of record debt levels across the economy. There’s only so much cash flow to go around.  Aging out boomers and reversing immigration flows are other macro factors significantly impacting housing markets.

The discussion below offers some further insight into these factors.

Ivy Zelman is the Executive Vice President and Co-Founder of Zelman & Associates, one of the most respected research firms advising investors and corporate executives on the real estate market over the past 30 years. In an increasing number of metros, especially where homebuilders are active, Ivy sees conditions starting to favour buyers. Here is a direct video link.

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Real estate downturn picking up steam

If we had a dime for all the times people say silly things, like “You’ll never lose money in real estate” or “high-end properties always hold their value.” Not true, never has been.

The current real estate correction cycle is well-earned after years of easy money speculation and uneconomically high prices. Three years into the downturn, many people are still in denial. But the mean reversion process is happening, and it packs a big financial hit for owners, lenders, the broader economy and jobs.  See, Cottage purchased for $1.9M sells at a 45% loss in Ontario:

An Ontario cottage purchased for $1.9 million in 2022 just sold for a huge loss.

As housing prices decline across Canada, homes continue to sell for much less than homeowners paid just a few years ago.

In Brampton, a home recently sold for a $469,000 loss, and a Mississauga home sold for a $700,000 loss in July.

In a tough market, recreational properties are not a priority for many buyers. A recent report found steep price declines in recreational markets across the province on a year-by-year basis, with areas like Niagara-on-the-Lake, Peterborough County, Northwestern Ontario, Orillia, and Grand Bend being hit the hardest.

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