Proactively manage your finances: Do it for you!

Our neighbour is a plastic surgeon with a busy cosmetic practice; his licence plate reads “DOIT4U’. It’s become something of a punchline at our house when commissioning our kids, home from school for the summer, to help with jobs around the house. ‘Do it for you,’ we joke. In reality, of course, there is a legit connection here. Doing repair and maintenance jobs ourselves is quite literally money saved by not having to pay others and, as we have pointed out to (the chagrin of) our children from time to time, savings we can then use to support offspring through a debt-free education. Win for them!

Benjamin Franklin is credited with popularizing the expression: “A penny saved is a penny earned,” and he was, then and now, right on the money. Popular culture suggests that if one has resources (cash, income and, in recent years, just access to credit), they can afford to pay others to do jobs for them. In reality, though, most people who have accumulated savings and net worth tend to do more themselves to spend less and save more.

Based on decades of data, researchers Thomas J. Stanley and William D. Danko, authors of Millionaire Next Door”(1996), found that consuming below one’s means was the number one reason that people were able to accumulate savings and net worth over their lifetime. As explained in the book:

“Most people have it all wrong about wealth…Wealth is not the same as income. If you make a good income each year and spend it all, you are not getting wealthier. You are just living high. Wealth is what you accumulate, not what you spend. How do we become wealthy? Here, too, most people have it wrong. It is seldom luck or inheritance or advanced degrees or even intelligence that enables people to amass fortunes. Wealth [as opposedtojustincome]is more often the result of a lifestyle of hard work, perseverance, planning and most of all self-discipline.”

Indeed, research has consistently confirmed that people with higher than average levels of income tend to retain a lower portion of it over time than those with lower income levels, precisely because they tend to spend more on lifestyle and consumption. A weakness amplified by marketing materials, many high-income earners still, more or less, live paycheque to paycheque.

As savings amass, millionaires that endure have traditionally allocated a relatively small portion of their net worth to personal-use-properties and high-risk securities, preferring instead to deploy capital into their own businesses, personal lending and lower risk investment strategies.

As explained by Dr. Stanley in the Preface to the 2010 updated edition of The Millionaire Next Door:

“Since 1980 I have consistently found that most millionaires do not have their wealth tied up in their stock portfolios or their homes…Not at any time during the past 30 years have I found that the typical millionaire had more than 30 percent of his [total]wealthinvested in publicly traded stocks.”

This revelation offers a rare antidote against a financial sector that routinely urges a majority weight in the riskiest stock and corporate debt-based products and allocations—that pay the highest fees to managers and underwriters—regardless of valuation levels and risk/return prospect for the customers.

The fact is that most financial firms and advisors work to ratchet up their own income by ratcheting up the risk exposure for their customers. Conflicting interests are magnified by the fact that finance workers, as a group, are typically high on consumption spending and low on personal saving rates themselves.

It’s not that there is no value to be found in market securities, it’s that the timing of when, what, and how much to hold must be carefully orchestrated within the life and market cycles at hand, and with the buyer’s financial protection as the defining premise above all else.

Moreover, particularly today at the end of a 39-year secular fall in interest rates and expansion in debt since 1981, investment yields are low and principal risks above-average for virtually every asset class—including real estate, dividend and ‘high’ income products. ‘No brainers’ are in scarce supply today so, navigating capital takes more unbiased, non-traditional thinking than ever in our lifetimes.

Anticipating these secular conditions, and seeking the independence to manage proactively through them, were precisely what prompted my team to leave a big investment bank and found Venable Park Investment Counsel, 17 years ago.

It is not necessary, nor in anyone’s best interests, to lose large chunks of capital in bear markets and spend years thereafter trying to recover.  But don’t expect most financial advisors or media commentators to acknowledge these facts; they have not devised an effective risk-management approach, and their business models pay them not to do so.

Borrow to spend, and buy and hold at every price, is not a stable financial plan.  There is a better way to manage our finances.  Do it for you!

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Credit history: Debt and Power

Understanding the history of credit cycles, and how breaking points typically resolve, offers a heads up on present times. I wrote about credit history in our July 2018 client letter which is available here.  Human behaviour around money and credit are timeless.

In this post we discuss debt in the current context, and consider where the very high levels of debt will take us. And as importantly, who wins and who loses.

Michael Hudson is an American economist, Professor of Economics, Author of Killing the Host and “and forgive them their debts,” among many earlier books. Here is a direct video link.

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Fiscal hopium rally brings another opportunity to reduce risk

Global risk markets have experienced the steppest 30 percent decline in history over the last month.  We should expect to see some big reversal rallies punctuating the downtrend–even while the trend continues down.

Today, as algos key on the promise of a big US federal aid package and a G7 pledge to do “whatever is necessary”, the bounce is big.  This affords yet another opportunity to review risk exposure amid a global recession, liquidity crunch, and forced selling yet to come.  The unravelling here is only just begun.  See WSJ: The Hedge Fund trades going haywire:

The fact that many such trades are financed by leverage to juice returns has made the fallout worse. The use of debt to enhance yields is probably the reason why some theoretically more stable sectors like utilities have actually performed worse than the broader market in the current bear market, for example.

Some trades that make sense normally are turned upside down in a crisis, when traders don’t sell what they should but what they can.

As well as Bloomberg’s We’re looking at a system-wide margin call:

“The Federal Reserve ushered out a second wave of quantitative easing Monday. But the worst scramble for cash is happening in an opaque corner of the market, where Chairman Jerome Powell has little control. What we’re witnessing is a system-wide margin call.

With the coronavirus outbreak intensifying, asset managers are getting squeezed by a record outflow from bond funds and billions more from stock funds. Even bigger withdrawals are probably happening in the over-the-counter world, where trades are conducted out of public eye, through broker-dealers. When traders get margin calls, they resort to selling their most liquid assets, usually stocks and U.S. Treasuries. This only deepens the slide.

Consider OTC derivatives, which are mostly betting slips on the future movements of interest rates and currencies…As of June 2019, the notional amount of such derivatives rose to $640 trillion, the highest since 2014, data provided by Bank of International Settlements show.”

For some perspective on this, the credit derivatives market was essentially non­existent in the early 1990s, and in 2008 had a notional value of about $50 Trillion.  Over the last 12 years, these financial weapons of mass destruction have ballooned nearly 13x larger.

It took 12 years to make the mess that’s now imploding.  We should not expect the clean up to be completed in a month.  Open doors should be used as exits.

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