Juggling Dynamite

David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes recession odds are higher than 2022 despite nobody expecting one, pointing to Fed staff forecasting 50% recession probability and the most downbeat Beige Book since 1980. Rosenberg criticizes Powell for calling the economy “solid” while real GDP has been negative sequentially in 2 of the past 3 months and survey data suggests 1% contraction. He highlights a major market dichotomy with stocks up 24% while the dollar is in an 11% bear market, suggesting something is fundamentally wrong. The housing market faces a negative wealth effect as supply-demand gaps widen and prices start cracking. Here is a direct video link.

Further to the comment regarding defensive equity allocations, it is worth noting that they also typically decline significantly during bear markets and recessions. The chart below, courtesy of A., Gary Shilling, offers some historical perspective. Eyes wide open.

Leland Miller, China Beige Book CEO, joins ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss the state of China’s economy, impact of U.S.-China trade negotiations, how much leverage the country has over the U.S., and more. Here is a direct video link.

Canada needs to build things the world wants.

A Canadian car company is rolling in a zero-emission vehicle called ‘Project Arrow’. CTV’s Sean Leathong reports. Here is a direct video link.

Also, see Donald Trump’s disdain for wind energy could create windfall for Nova Scotia: experts:

New England states and New York have been leading development of the offshore wind sector in the U.S., but Trump’s opposition could stall the industry for the next four years.

“They need to find renewable sources to supply this energy,” Sorensen said. “That’s where large-scale Canadian wind could come into the picture, specifically Wind West …. There’s a golden opportunity in this for Canada.”

Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston has plans to license enough offshore wind farms to produce 40 gigawatts of electricity — which could supply 27 per cent of Canada’s total electricity demand. But what will it take to get there? Here is a direct video link.

And also…

CNBC’s Phil LeBeau talks with JB Straubel, Redwood Materials CEO and Tesla co-founder, to discuss the Redwood’s new enterprise to convert EV car batteries into energy storage for data centers. Here is a direct video link.