Juggling Dynamite

More malinvestment in propping up asset prices and the status quo is the opposite of what’s needed. The focus has to be on investments and incentives that increase longer-term efficiency and net income (with full cost accounting for the waste and harm created by different business models and revenue streams).

Andrew Grantham, senior economist at CIBC Capital Markets, talks with Financial Post’s Larysa Harapyn about how the headline jobs numbers are not telling the full story. Here is a direct video link.

Also see A Warning from the Breakdown Nations:

Take Canada first. Widely admired for how it weathered the global financial crisis of 2008, it missed the boat when the world moved on, driven by big tech instead of commodities. Canada’s per capita GDP has been shrinking 0.4 per cent a year since 2020 — the worst rate for any developed economy in the top 50. New investment and job growth is being driven mainly by the government.

Private-sector action is confined largely to the property market, which does little for productivity and prosperity. Many young people can’t afford to buy in one of the world’s most expensive housing markets. Pressed to name a digital success, Canadians cite Shopify — but the online store is the only tech name among the country’s 10 largest companies, and its shares are trading at half their 2021 peak.

…The takeaway here is not that smart countries somehow turned stupid. It is that hidden traps line the path of development and can spring on nations at every income level from the middle to the rich. One basic mistake or miss, and any country can find itself stuck — until it finds the leadership and vision to chart a way out. For current stars, the message is a warning: don’t take growth for granted.

The CBC News Network Weekend Business panel takes a look at the top stories of the week. Here is a direct video link.

This week, the Swedish central bank followed Switzerland in becoming the second G10 nation to ease base rates in the banking system. Both cited weakening economic activity.

The Bank of Canada is expected to follow suit this summer, with 45% of outstanding Canadian mortgages up for renewal this year and next. Most were taken out when interest rates were an abnormally low sub 3% (2020-21). Now, debt service costs are leaping while unemployment is on the rise. This is negative for consumption-driven economies where GDP growth depends heavily on ever-higher spending on goods and services.

Once they start, central bank easing efforts tend to be contagious, and it’s quite likely that the Bank of Canada will end up easing faster than is presently priced into asset markets. However, monetary easing is no quick fix and typically takes several quarters to filter through the economy. Royce Mendes follows the Canadian data closely.

Royce Mendes, managing director and head of macro strategy at Desjardins, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss the health of the Canadian consumer as retailers post cautious outlooks. Mendes says higher interest rates do a lot more to slow down spending in Canada than in other countries. Mendes also discusses the housing market and his top economic concerns. Here is a direct video link.