Juggling Dynamite

As markets plunge around the world this week, we should not lose big picture perspective on how relatively little they have mean reverted to date.  And also on how much further stocks are likely to fall before they complete their third, and potentially final, bear cycle of this secular bear that began in 2000.

This chart of the Canadian stock index (TSX) from my partner Cory Venable offers a glimpse of where we are today and where cyclical value is likely to present (green band).  A great opportunity is coming, but only to those who have been defensive in reckless times and prepared their liquidity in advance.  Sitting ducks tend to get shot, and no one should be surprised by any of this.

My mom passed away last night.  Suffering from early onset dementia since her late 50’s, (as I explained here) she had been ill for two decades and had not recognized any of us for the last seven years, at least.  Hers was a horrible, dragged out death, that stole all of her dignity and everything that she was.

Norinne lived in a nursing home a few minutes from my house, where she received excellent care, and where I have been able to visit her regularly.  Except this week.  I rarely get sick but, as luck would have it, I came down with one of the worst flu bugs of my life last weekend and have been housebound the last few days.  The home called to say my mom had stopped taking food or water on Friday and that her time would not be long.  The last few days I have worked from my couch and tried to recover enough to be able to go to the home and hold her hand as she died.  Alas, it was not to be.  She is gone, and I am still ill.

As usual, I have tons of work to do, articles to write and our client month-end letter to complete, but planning a service and writing a eulogy for my mom now top the list.  I have been reminded yet again, that I am not the boss of life’s agenda.  This morning brings me fresh perspective on the word ‘deadline.’   I’ll be back to the blog as soon as I’m able.

This is a picture of my mom when she was 22 with her firstborn son in 1963. Style and grit.  Rest in peace Norinne.  I could say I will never forget you, but I know from your experience, it’s not a promise one can necessarily keep.

Good summary of relevant points in this segment.  The reality is that no investment approach gets to win forever, each one has periods of under-performance.  What matters most is not how much asset prices go up and down, but rather how much one keeps on a cash in to cash out basis over full market cycles bull and then bear.

Mark Yusko, founder, CEO and president of Morgan Creek Capital Management, discusses what is causing this market sell-off.  Here is a direct video link.

Morgan Creek CEO: Markets will get back to normal, but ‘normal is a long way down from here’ from CNBC.