The compound magic of spending less to have more

In 25 years as a lawyer and financial analyst I’ve prepared and reviewed lots of income and expense statements, for businesses and households, across all income brackets. Early on I noted that in terms of financial strength, the level of expenditure is far more definitive than the level of income.

When there are lots of holes in our bucket, even huge amounts of cash flow will keep running out. When there is attention to efficiency and fiscal restraint, even relatively low amounts of income can build strong financial foundations over time.  Personal discipline is key.

The last few decades of easy and easier credit–as interest rates fell and financialization boomed since the early ’80’s–have been the bane of financial strength.  Rather than saving first to spend later, credit enables us to spend first and then pay back a larger expenditure (with financing costs) over time.  In the process, expenses increase and the amount of cash flow left over for savings is reduced or eliminated altogether.

Recently I came upon this CNBC article that included the budget of a US couple earning $500k a year and barely covering their outflows, while saving 7% of their gross income per year.  The breakdown offers a good case study.

Off the top, it’s important to note that $500k in annual household income is huge.  Consider that to leave these jobs, and retire on 500k a year in investment income at today’s yields, one would need just under $17 million in savings.

Meanwhile, the median annual household income in the US was $59k in 2016, and $70K in Canada.  The Pew Research Center defines ‘upper class’ households as those earning more than 2 x the national median income ie., more than $118K in the US and $140K in Canada.  In either country (indeed the world) less than 1% of households have an annual income of $500k and more.

With the median annual savings rate nationally at less than 3% today, this household saving 7.2% of their income per year is socking away just over twice the national average.  But with income more than 8 x the national median, the question should be why are they saving so relatively little?

Standouts are the usual suspects:  financed expenditures like a $1.5 million shelter (plus taxes, insurance and upkeep), three cars (with gas, insurance and maintenance), student loans, and lifestyle items, like three vacations a year.

It does not say what their outstanding debt balances are, but it’s difficult to get to meaningful savings ratios until debt is fully retired.   So, after tax deductible retirement saving contributions (sometimes even before them depending on tax rates) focus number two should be the debt.  To make meaningful headway, the family needs to reduce their spending so they can eliminate debt, and then redirect the cash flow to monthly savings.

The most obvious place to start would be downsizing three cars to two or even one.  Change light bulbs to LEDs, cut cable, do more of your own jobs around the house. It’s amazing what costs we can drop when we focus minds on it.  I would also look to cut the vacation budget; still take time off, but find cheaper options for recreation.

Lastly, especially when you’re still in debt and raising kids, charity has to begin at home, $1500 a month (18k a year) is a ton to be giving away at this stage.

When bank deposit rates were over 18% in the 1980’s, credit costs were high and households were debt-averse and saving more than 15% of their income per year.  We need to get back to those habits.

If we can be serious about lowering expenditures now, eliminating debt and building up liquid savings again, the future will be brighter with less stress and more peace.  Households will be stronger, health and social systems, less strapped.  Magic.

 

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Relative tightening already more intense than the 2003-06 cycle

While interest rates have risen over the past couple of years, it’s true that they are still well below the mean of the past 30 years.  More importantly however, the net change in key borrowing rates from this cycle’s lows to present has already been intense.  This table summarizes the net change to date for key reference rates in Canada and the US. We note that a lesser 425% tightening of the Fed funds rates from 1% in June 2003 to 5.25% by June 2006, was enough to trigger the ‘great’ recession starting in December 2007.  And households and businesses domestically and globally are much more levered/indebted today than they were in 2006.

Cash flows are feeling the crimp of increased finance costs, even as brave central bankers say they have much more tightening to do.  Somehow we doubt their nerve will hold as spending continues to drop and credit strains and defaults build in this late, great credit cycle Frankenstein that they have helped create.

This next table, courtesy of economist David Rosenberg, summarizes how late the present stock market cycle has run compared with the other expansion periods over the past 69 years.  At 106 months to January 2018, only the October 1990 to March 2000 run was 7 months longer when it ended in a nearly 3-year -50%+ bloodbath for stock holders from March 2000 through February 2003. The tech index of course, dropped by 78%, and many individual shares went to zero.

The 1990-2000 expansion began from much lower stock valuation multiples than today (the 17-year secular valuation low was in 1982), and this cycle stock buyers have been paying up for much lower growth rates.  As shown above, the nominal annual growth rate (GDP) of the US economy at 5.6% during the 1990-2000 expansion was 55% higher than the 3.6% rate averaged since 2009.  The recent cycle stands out for having the weakest growth rates on record–about half the historic average.

Corporate issuers and underwriters have made off like bandits during this manic cycle of indiscriminate buyers-run-wild.  Soon, holders will realize that the price wasn’t right and they are left with losses to show for it.

“What were we thinking?” people will ask.  The answer of course:  most weren’t thinking, they were just hoping they could gamble, win, keep playing and somehow keep the proceeds without ever cashing out.  Suffice to say, the odds aren’t favorable.

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Danielle’s bi-weekly market update

Danielle was a guest with Jim Goddard of Talk Digital Network talking about recent developments in the world economy and markets.  You can listen to an audio clip of the segment here.

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