Juggling Dynamite

Danielle was a guest with Jim Goddard on Talk Digital Network, talking about recent developments in the world economy and markets. You can listen to an audio clip of the segment here.

Also, see, Toronto home prices fall as active listings surge:

Home sales were down 5.3 per cent in August compared to the same time last year, and decreased by 7.7 per cent compared to July. New listings were up slightly year-over-year and active listings surged by 46.2 per cent, the report said.

Historically, the GTA’s real estate market is known for its lack of supply, but there is now plenty of choice. The last time this happened was during the 2008-09 financial crisis and the early months of the pandemic, Mercer said. As interest rates continue to drop, active listings will also decrease, he added.

The average selling price was down by 0.8 per cent compared to August 2023 to $1,074,425 — on a seasonally adjusted basis, the average selling price edged lower compared to July.

Home prices across all property types in the GTA dropped with detached, semi-detached, townhouse, and condos seeing a 0.3 per cent, 3.9 per cent, 4.6 per cent, and 4.5 per cent decrease, respectively.

Fine wine prices have tumbled back to the pandemic lows of 2020 due to falling consumption, globally.

Fine wine prices are decreasing sharply amid rising inventories and low demand for some of the most expensive wine #MacroEdge pic.twitter.com/qzuVSh3ixd

— MacroEdge (@MacroEdgeRes) September 3, 2024

Are consumers struggling financially or realizing that alcohol is toxic for their brains?

At the same time, slumping demand for luxury goods is causing Swiss watchmakers to seek state aid:

Swiss watchmakers are suffering from a sharp decline in demand, especially in China, following an unprecedented boom during the post-pandemic era when consumers rushed to buy pricey timepieces. After three straight years of record exports, wholesale watch exports have fallen by 2.4% in value in the first seven months of the year as consumers refrain from splashing out on expensive watches.

The drop in consumer demand has hit brands making slightly less expensive watches the hardest, while top-selling brands such as Rolex and Patek Philippe have been more resilient.

The slowdown has also affected Richemont, the group behind Vacheron Constantin and IWC, and Omega owner Swatch Group AG, which have both seen sales dive in China.

The earnings of art dealers are sporting similar trends, see Sotheby’s earnings plunge as art market catches a chill:

Sotheby’s has reported an 88 percent plunge in its core earnings and a 25 percent decline in auction sales, as a chill in the art market hits one of the industry’s most famous brokers.

The first-half figures at Sotheby’s main auction business reveal the extent of the financial pressure the group came under before it struck an investment deal with Abu Dhabi this month.

Weaker luxury spending in China is among the factors weighing on demand for fine art and affecting both Sotheby’s and historic rival Christie’s.

This morning, the US 2-year Treasury yield fell to 3.796%, the lowest level since May 2023. In the process, the US 2 and 10-year yield curve (below since 2019) turned briefly positive (short yield lower than long) after a record 796 days of inversion (2-year yielding more than the 10-year) since July 8, 2022.

The July 2024-Sept 2024 curve inversion is now the longest since 1927/29 and exceeds other record inversion periods that preceded the brutal 1973/74 and 2007/08 recessions and bear markets. It was when the curve finally un-inverted that all hell broke loose.

There are some important warnings here for those able and prepared to see. Sadly, most financial ‘experts’ are paid to look the other way and keep customers long-always the riskiest investment products.

Over the last year, more than 200 real estate developments in Canada became insolvent. Andrew Chang explains why, at a time of high demand for housing, a growing number of projects are falling through. Here is a direct video link.