Juggling Dynamite

The outlook for small business earnings has been contracting since 2019, retreating below the pandemic bottom in August, with no turnaround yet.
The glaring outperformance of S&P 500 operating earnings (in light blue below) above small business earnings since 2023 (dark blue below since 1986) looks unsustainable even as a bullish consensus forecast continued divergence over the next 12 months (red line).

Historically, the earnings of S&P 500 companies have correlated with trends in more economically sensitive smaller companies as the economy slows and the money supply contracts.

See more in August Sees Dip in Small Business Optimism With Credit Uncertainty.

Meanwhile, commodity prices confirm the downturn in global demand, with the Bloomberg Commodity Index (below since 2020) now down 32% from the 2022 high and falling.

Treasury yields have also been falling (prices rising) as the yield curve un-inverts in another reliable signal of incoming recession.

Last week, the two-year US Treasury bond yield (3.654%) closed below the ten-year yield (3.716%), making for a +.062% spread and the first upward-sloping curve for these yields since July 2022.

The re-steepening of Treasury yield spreads after months of inversion has historically proven to be a reliable warning of economic contraction, accelerating unemployment, and the most punishing part of bear markets.

Commodity prices appear to concur with the CRB Index (39% weighted in oil and gas, 41% agriculture, 7% precious metals and 13% industrial metals), down sharply on the week and -10% since May. Oil (WTIC) is negative year to date, -13.5% in the past year and -25.6% since peaking in May 2022.

Fossil fuel company shares (XEG basket), typically the last leg propping up Canada’s TSX at cycle peaks (in black below, versus other sectors, since April 2022), had fallen 4% to the end of August (as shown below) and are down another 10% so far, in September.

The downdraft in equities and other risk markets has been minuscule relative to the due give-back period. So far, stocks and the highest-risk corporate debt have priced less than 20% odds of an incoming recession (black bars below), compared with economically sensitive Treasuries and base metals (in yellow below) that are now priced for 70 and 66% odds of recession, respectively. See, Wall Street Traders Suddenly Converge on Economic Prospects Ahead:

“…the sentiment gap between stocks and bonds was noticeable last month. An equal-weight version of the S&P 500 — which gives Big Tech companies the same weighting as the humble consumer staple — ended August at an all-time high in an upbeat signal about the business cycle ahead. Meanwhile, the yield on two-year Treasuries kept falling, reflecting the conviction that Jerome Powell & Co. will be forced to enact a faster-than-expected pace of rate cuts.

If that conviction builds, risky assets may be forced to take fresh cues from the world’s most important bond market. It’s not a perfect science, but for three sessions in a row earlier this week, the S&P 500 stood within 2.5% of a 52-week high, while two-year rates sat within 50 basis points of a 52-week low — a cluster of divergence not seen since 2019.”

The most important question is not whether a recession and bear market will come—they are inevitable parts of financial cycles. The question is how we will fare when they do.

What’s your plan to survive and thrive through the downcycle? Most individuals and investment advisers don’t have one.

Danielle was a guest with Jim Goddard on Talk Digital Network, talking about recent developments in the world economy and markets. You can listen to an audio clip of the segment here.

Also, see, Toronto home prices fall as active listings surge:

Home sales were down 5.3 per cent in August compared to the same time last year, and decreased by 7.7 per cent compared to July. New listings were up slightly year-over-year and active listings surged by 46.2 per cent, the report said.

Historically, the GTA’s real estate market is known for its lack of supply, but there is now plenty of choice. The last time this happened was during the 2008-09 financial crisis and the early months of the pandemic, Mercer said. As interest rates continue to drop, active listings will also decrease, he added.

The average selling price was down by 0.8 per cent compared to August 2023 to $1,074,425 — on a seasonally adjusted basis, the average selling price edged lower compared to July.

Home prices across all property types in the GTA dropped with detached, semi-detached, townhouse, and condos seeing a 0.3 per cent, 3.9 per cent, 4.6 per cent, and 4.5 per cent decrease, respectively.