Interesting interview from Larry Doyle at No Quarter Radio this week. He spoke to Rick Davis of the Consumer Metrics Institute (CMI). Davis reports a consumer composite index of leading indicators which he says has led traditional GDP numbers by about 17 weeks. The elements of CMI's composite are further up the economic pipeline being focused on consumer demand (70% of US economy) as compared with the later manufacturing focus in traditional GDP.
Bottom line is that CMI's index has been contracting since August 2009 and now suggests 2010 Q1 GDP is likely to come in at 2.5%, and Q2 is likely to be back in contraction mode at -1 to -1.5% annualized. If they are correct, the presently lofty stock market does not yet see this coming.
You can see more on their method as well as their recent composite charts on the CMI web site here.
And the interview starts below at audio marker 53:00:
Cory’s Chart Corner
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