Bullish stock and commodity sentiment is of course raging these days. I am having déjà vu of 2007 when the vast majority of managers, commentators and retail investors were giddy with greed and rosy forecasts. Few saw reasons for concern then. Ditto today.
The trouble is most equity folks want and need to be bullish in order for their business model to work. I can understand that being perma-bullish is easier most of the time. But it also means there are very few people doing sober assessments of actual number trends. Economist David Rosenberg is one of the rare useful analysts that is still dutifully taking measurements and doing math. His morning letter can be found on line under “musings” at the Gluskin Sheff website. You will have to register with your email address for access.
Today's “Breakfast with Dave” is particularly insightful and includes some excellent charts showing recent trends, not just relative to last year, but importantly relative to pre-2008 and historical levels.
Anyone interested in broader thoughts than just daily price movements should read Dave.
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