Roubini on double dip risks building in Europe:
“Markets are now realizing that this is going to be a period of slow economic growth. I'm not doom and gloom, I'm talking about slow economic growth over the next 3 years. Economic growth below 2 percent in the US would make for a negative outlook, and this scenario is very likely, he said.
The US economy needs to create 150,000 jobs per month to stabilize the labour market, and it is creating fewer, according to Roubini, who sees unemployment staying close to 10 percent:”
Overall the US needs minimum GDP growth of 3.5% a year to create net new jobs and beginning working down the unemployment rate. Double-dip is not the base case expectation, but even US Growth below 3% in 2H and 1H 2011, will feel like an ongoing recession with stubborn unemployment and further consumer and commercial defaults triggering further credit shocks through the world's still highly levered financial system.
Nouriel is getting a little irritable these days, especially having to constantly reiterate the mounting facts at hand to the “long-always” commentators on mainstream networks.
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