Up to now, analyst consensus has been for 3% US growth in the second half of 2010. My expectation has been for much less. I believe that positive growth of any kind would be a best case scenario over the next couple of quarters. But even this best case scenario is likely to further disappoint stock markets in the weeks ahead. Negative growth is likely to spark a renewed wave of outright panic in global markets.
An indicator which accurately forecast growth in Q2 at 2.6% (it came in at 2.7 final last week) is the Consumer Metrics Institute's Daily Growth Index. This index is now projecting negative growth of -1.5% and -2.0% over the next two quarters. You can read more here with Larry Doyle.
Cory’s Chart Corner
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