Every week I get a few comments or emails from people wanting to know what I think of gold as an investment. I have responded to these in various posts and interviews over the past few years. To reiterate for those that have missed it, I have always explained my thoughts generally as follows:
- Gold makes no sense to me as an investment. It pays nothing, it is not essential for anything in our economy, and as an analyst I have no way of assessing its fair value.
- I understand that some people have a passionate committment to gold as “a true store of value”, “the only real currency” , and a hard asset that can be used as a medium of exchange in the event that the paper financial system blows up. I have no problem with any of these ideas. I would never try to talk anyone out of their beliefs in this regard and I have always said that people should own gold it they feel better or more protected doing so than not.
- That said if one is holding gold for these reasons, I see no protective value in doing so through paper versions such as gold funds, gold ETFs or gold company shares. All of these assets trade as paper assets and if the fiat financial system implodes (as many gold bugs insist that it will) these paper assets are at risk as well. Indeed we need only look at the performance of many gold funds and gold companies in the last credit crisis in 2008, where many lost huge value, including the Canadian Gold company ETF (XGD) that lost 47% with the overall market decline between February and October 2008. What protection?
- If one wishes to hold gold for the usual arguments, then it seems to me the only reasonable approach is to buy physical gold bars and coins and store them in a secure place. Although I do not see how a bank vault or safe deposit box makes sense for this. Aren’t you concerned about the stability of these very institutions? It makes no sense then to deposit your gold there it seems. So the gold one holds should be held somewhere in their own home or property under secure lock and key (in case of course you are robbed, or it melts in a fire).
- Physical gold stored in your own secure premise seems a rational approach if you want to hedge against the collapse of the financial system and free world. The question then becomes how much of your cash do you wish to exchange for gold. This is a personal question that each person must decide for themselves. Is it 5%, 10%, 20% more? Keeping in mind of course that the gold sellers are telling you cash is worthless and yet they are taking your cash and giving you gold. And also keeping in mind that in hoping that your gold sky-rockets in value you are also hoping that the rest of your assets and net worth plummet. This is a complex asset allocation decision.
- We have been in a long gold bull for more than 10 years so I understand the human propensity to see only further gains and perhaps gold will continue to gain for longer still. But one thing is for sure: no bull run in any asset has ever lasted indefinitely–and certainly not gold. Many argue that gold has been a store of value for centuries. But when one actually reads the history of gold (see The Power of Gold, by Peter Bernstein as one excellent historical reference) one sees that gold fever has come and gone hundreds of times through human history. It is has had spectacular runs up and down where fortunes have been made and lost with the “barbarous relic”. You really want to bank on “this time is different”? Maybe; best wishes with that.
- The other major issue today is that like the tech bubble in the late ’90’s and the housing bubble in the mid-2000’s, assets that have had extended runs up become heavily populated with those selling the story. I see this today in gold more than ever. Many of the vocal ubber-bulls are in the business of selling the physical gold or gold funds, ETFs or gold company shares to others (in exchange for their cash, as aforementioned).
- As in all things, if you are taking your buy advice from those who are paid to sell you the investment products, you are putting yourself and your capital in harm’s way. Whenever you hear someone talking about the merits of gold, as with other investments, you really need to ask yourself where do they sit in terms of their role and vested interest in what they are telling you.
- Even for those who are not selling the stuff, I see the same issue frequently in those who are already invested in gold personally. Many of them have become supremely confident and passionate in their attachment to ‘gold belief.’ This is so pronounced in some that they take the time to send me abusive emails demanding to know why I won’t tell everyone to buy gold and saying that my blog is useless because I won’t.
Really? I tell you what. If you find the blog useless, how about you don’t read it. How about you spend your time elsewhere in ways you deem productive. There are tons of gold worship sites and people you can spend your time with; there is certainly no need for you to frequent my blog. At all. Really, we understand. And keep in mind that the more belligerent and attacking your correspondence is to me on this issue, the more the evidence of irrational exuberance in this area.
Dear gold lovers, now that you have my thoughts as requested, please go forth and be happy with your choices and beliefs. Don’t bother sending me more emotional rants trying to change my mind or convince the world of your views like a bunch of religious zealots. Comments of this kind will simply be deleted without reading. Now that I have spent the time laying out my thoughts in detail here, future requests for my opinion on gold will simply reference this post.
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Thank you very much for your thoughts!
Great read. Thanks
Well said!
Good for you. Woman. Get it out of your system. Happy holidays. JW, Vancouver
good stuff!
Danielle, I will preface my comment by saying that I am not a gold bug. And I agree with just about everything you say in your post.
But one thing I do take issue with it your assertion that the idea of gold as real money or gold as true store of value is a so-called “belief.” If it is just a belief then the biggest believers would seem to be the very fiat masters (governments and central banks) who profess to denounce gold, or at least pretend to ignore it.
When the US wanted to devalue the dollar in 1933. What was one of the first things they did? They confiscated the peoples’ gold and built a giant vault on a military base (Fort Knox) to safeguard it. And since then they built another one at West Point. When the French and others caused a run on the US’s gold stocks back in the late ’60s. What did they do? They closed the so-called gold window and stopped the dollar’s convertibility, by and large. And over the past decade, many central banks have been increasing their stocks of gold, with reports of China buying everything their local producers can scratch out of the ground. And the New York Fed seems loath to give up custody of the gold it holds for other countries.
I’m not saying this is right or wrong, but I have to ask, if the idea of gold as money or as a store of value is just a belief, why then do governments and central banks seem to covet it so much?
Just my 2 cents…………….Yes, China is loading up on gold, but when you look, at say, their monetary policies which have led to a massive housing bubble and significant inflation, I’m not sure I would blindly follow what they are doing. Gold is likely a “store of value” but only if you have a very long time line (or get lucky). In the same vein, if you bought a stock index today and held it for 70-80 years you would probably do quite well, but that isn’t the kind of time frame most of us are working with in our investment strategies.
Great stuff, Danielle. I agree with most of what you said but I am heavily into gold anyway :). Like you say, it is not an investment but I do believe it is a good a store of value and is more liquid than other fixed assets like real estate. For me, it is a choice for my cash to have it either in US dollar, CDN dollar or gold. I choose gold. It has a risk but I am happier taking the risk with gold than I am with taking the risk holding any fiat currency that is subject to unfettered government manipulation and devaluation. Don’t get me wrong, precious metals markets can be manipulated too but long term, I believe it is a safest place to be.
Anyway, keep up the great work. You are my voice of reason when I listen to the gold bugs too much and I am tempted to go all in…..
“[…] their monetary policies which have led to a massive housing bubble and significant inflation, I’m not sure I would blindly follow what they are doing.”
We already have. The number of countries whose monetary policies caused a housing bubble is legion. Canada is the poster child for this. China is actually behind the curve. But that’s not the issue, anyway.
My point is that governments and central banks, despite their flooding the world with fiat currencies, have never given up their trump card: gold. Ask yourself why that is. They don’t hoard silver, or copper, or livestock. They hoard gold, and lots of it.
They may prefer spewing out fiat debt/”money” for the masses, but deep in their hearts they know that the only real money is gold. When asked whether gold was money at a congressional hearing, The Bernank nearly choked on his beard before recouping his composure and replying in the negative, but he did admit it was a store of value.
Keep in mind, that a currency is not necessarily true money. Certainly, our currency is not. It only has value as long as people have confidence that the debt represented by the currency notes can be repaid. Country by country we are approaching one of two possible conditions in which this may actually be a real risk: 1) default, and; 2) hyperinflation. (This can’t happen in Euro countries because they don’t control their own monetary policies and the Euro acts as a kind of “gold” standard. The risk of actual default in the US is basically a political issue, not a monetary one, but the US could certainly hyperinflate. Oh, wait, haven’t they already? Check out the Fed’s balance sheet.)
Meanwhile the relative decline of the size of the US economy is calling into question the current dollar/Treasury system. I believe central banks are accumulating gold as a hedge against a disorderly transition from a system dominated by the US dollar into a world of multiple reserve currencies––a world in which gold may play a role in international settlements.
As for investments, all asset classes have their secular ups and downs. It took the DOW 25 years to reach its previous pre-crash 1929 peak. And that’s in nominal terms. If you ex out dividends, the actual inflation-adjusted returns of the stock market may shock you. Again, between ’66 and ’82 stocks went basically nowhere (down in constant dollars). Gold was $35 in 1971. Great trade if you bought back then, right? But if you bought it in 1980 you are just now probably approaching that inflation adjusted peak, if that. So with any asset class, it depends on when you buy.
All this does not mean gold is a good investment, necessarily. The government can change the rules at any time to confiscate the extra value you may have accumulated in the gold bull. I’m just saying, if central banks and governments want it, it may not be a bad idea for you to have some too.
Thanks Danielle
Another timely article that echos some of your concerns:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/gold-rehypotecation-unwind-begins-hsbc-sues-mf-global-over-disputed-ownership-physical-gold
Danielle, I enjoy your blog and views. To make your post balanced a reference to the continuous failure of one fiat money system after the next throughout history should be included. Since we live in a credit based system predicated upon nothing but political promises (which appear to be broken) where does one put their money for protection? Or is it okay to simply sit, watch, and hope? The financial problems the world faces are purely mathematical and unfortunately not solvable. Full disclosure, not a gold bug, but have always been of the belief that a monetary system that is not asset backed is a recipe for disaster.
“So the gold one holds should be held somewhere in their own home or property under secure lock and key (in case of course you are robbed, or it melts in a fire).”
I guess if it melts it would still be a…er…liquid asset. 😉
Storage is certainly one of the problems for the retail investor. The stress of storing coins in the house, to me, outweighs the comfort of having an alternative “currency”. It also raised the question of how you buy a loaf of bread with a gold coin????? Instead, I’ve opted to trade (not hold) gold company shares over the past 4 years. My neighbour, who used to work for a mining company, calls gold (and gold stocks) “capricious”. I’ve certainly come to believe that he is correct.
There’s a few other issues with gold as well. There have been instances of fake gold bricks and bars e.g. http://sanityisdead.blogspot.com/2009/11/400-oz-gold-plated-tungsten-bars.html
Could you tell the difference between real gold bars, coins and their fakes? I know I couldn’t. I believe Danielle is entirely correct when she says if you want to hold gold you should hold actual physical gold and keep it in your possession. In an armageddon scenario it won’t take your neighbours long to figure out you’ve got the gold and they’ll want a piece of it as they point a gun at you.
You said “…..governments and central banks, despite their flooding the world with fiat currencies, have never given up their trump card: gold. Ask yourself why that is. They don’t hoard silver, or copper, or livestock. They hoard gold, and lots of it. ” Countries like Canada and the UK have actually sold off a lot of their gold http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5788dbac-7680-11e0-b05b-00144feabdc0.html
In the end if the SHTF you can pay me with a chicken or a car repair and you can keep your gold.
First column is density (gm/cm3), second is density difference
from tungsten, third is dimension difference of bar
with same weight (Source: Gold-quote.net)
Tungsten 19.25 0% 0%
24K Gold 19.3 0.26% 0.0017%
22K Gold 18.43 4.25% 0.0077%
The table above illustrates that although tungsten’s density is within 0.26% of pure gold making it nearly impossible to detect, it is nearly 5% heavier than the 22 karat gold of Krugerrands. The dimension differences of a counterfeited 22 karat coin would have to be 6 times larger than those of a pure gold coin to weight the same. So one is 6 times more likely to detect a counterfeited 22k coin or piece of jewellery than a counterfeited pure gold bar through simple measurement.
Gee Danielle, perhaps you should tell us what you really think about gold!
All kidding aside, if the fiat system falls apart, true wealth will be Water, Grain(or other forms of dry food) & Shelter; and as einstein would say, the rest are just details. If you sincerely believe the monetary system is about to fail, several hundred pounds of grain will be worth a lot more than any cold glossy metal. Any you will suddenly have a bunch of new best friends.
Gold is money
Pounds or Dollars earn no interest in the bank.We have negative interest rates.
Gold is up 23% in one year, and 239% in £ Pounds or 171% in US $ in 5 years.
When politicians and bankers stop “printing money” or raise interest rates I will sell my gold store of value.
Douglas Adams on gold investment:
http://www.dilbert.com/strips/2011-10-01/
Yes, I’ve heard about the tungsten gold. So, you’re worried about fraudulent bullion? I ask you, how much fraud exists in the world of “paper”? Does a day go buy these days when we don’t get a new report about some financial scam, most of which are only possible because of “paper”? Heck, the financial services industry wasn’t event interested in gold until they were able to turn it into “paper” (futures contracts, ETFs, trusts), because it was at that point that the real games could begin.
So Canada and the UK sold off some gold. Go ask them now if they think that was a smart move? But also consider how important these two countries are in the world economy? Meanwhile, you have the US, whose very currency has beed the “gold standard” for well over half a century, and whom of all countries in the world you’d think they would give up the gold ever since we moved to a dollar/Treasury reserve system. And yet, they keep the largest hoard of gold of any country on this planet.
In an Armageddon scenario you’ll have much more to worry about than your gold. But, when the Zimbabwe dollar collapsed, I don’t know if people were taking chickens for payment, but I do know they were accepting gold.
Danielle,
Outstanding post above for us gold bugs and I thank you very much for taking the time to speak to us. Keep up the good work!
I am a fearful person and I think that is one thing driving me to own gold. I fear that our US dollar will eventually become almost worthless or that a financial collapse, possibly triggered by Europe (or something else), will cause the $1,200 Trillion in derivatives to wipe out all bank and 401K funds. I don’t know what the actual likelihood of that happening is, but it appears more likely now than ever and it seems like the probability is growing daily and US politicians and bankers are lying, immoral criminals so I don’t trust them to do anything to prevent it. Thus, gold. I don’t recommend going “all-in” but “some” makes me sleep better at night.
Paula/NS, above, wondered how to buy bread with gold. Here you go Paula: (keep knife and scale handy)
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/video/2009/feb/11/zimbabwe-gold-panning-starvation-food
I think this interview of Danielle has some good insights on owning gold:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rdYJDxcxQCI&feature=related
I remember throughout the summer of 2008, all the gold bugs I followed were screaming “Buy, Buy, gold shares are dirt cheap”. Even in Sept., 2008, Eric Sprott and Peter Grandich, two very famous gold bugs, were saying that now is the time to really hold onto your gold and gold shares as gold was really set to take off to the moon. What happened? Weeks afterword, Lehman Bros. happened and gold and gold shares crashed. Don’t think that this can’t happen again in another liquidity crisis. For true protection in a very unstable stock market (which I think that we are in right now), the only think to own is CASH.
Problem is at current value, all of the US gold holdings, if you believe they actually have it and Ron Paul has his doubts, only covers about four months of the national budget deficit.
Great piece Danielle….one of your best!
Disclaimer….I do own some gold shares…juniors and seniors…I own no bullion except through some stock I hold which hold bullion instead of cash.
For all the newbie gold parrots out there who somehow always seem to jump on board the flavour of the day express as it nears its nadir I would just like to say that gold is NOT money….money is money. Gold may be a store of value to some but it is really just a commodity which is priced in accord with market demand….the greater fool principal.
Most punters have an emotional view on gold not a rational one….if it was rational and their view on gold was positive they would own shares of gold producers not bullion because at 1700/oz some gold producers are making out like bandits and should be valued as growth companies. They are not because the mainstream asset manager has no idea how to value them so stays away in abject fear…typical behavior.
So for all the doom and gloomers out there who think that the world financial system will collapse along with social order, and it very well may, but that there will be enough order left that you will be able to barter your bullion in a fair exchange and your coins or bricks of shiny metal will protect you I would ask how much of your bullion you would exchange for enough food to feed your family for just one day …… how much of it for the life of one of your children ….then what?
“If you believe in God then you have to believe in the Devil”
Remember, the greatest bubble of all is the one most of you believe is safest, CASH, denominated as government promissory notes backed by nothing. In a fiat money system of which every single one of them has failed time and again, cash / paper is really just debt that has a duration of zero. If you trust that government will do the right thing for you, best of luck. You are either one of them or you’re not. Diversification outside of the financial system can be accomplished in a number of various ways. Owning equities, bonds, cash, etc. is not diversification regardless of the mix as they are all just paper. If you do not understand leverage at a time when it is at its greatest level in history, I would learn about it and soon, very soon.
Could the world go back to the gold standard?
http://blogs.ft.com/martin-wolf-exchange/2010/11/01/could-the-world-go-back-to-the-gold-standard/
Hi Roberta,
The film illustrates the outcome of rampant inflation and currency devaluation under general government graft and an insane autocratic leader. I have a feeling that the US won’t get to that point. I do think, sometime in the future, there will be a single world currency. I doubt that will happen before things get rockier than at present.
Great insights, as usual. But, right now, the actual definition, of money, or certainly the backing for it, is simply: debt.
[YUCK! No thanks!]
I have to ask just where wealth should go in these times? Most investments are not returning anything worth the risk. The dividends on gold miners are going up every day. There’s not much else out there, really. Maybe a few select oil issues. And the physical metal? Yes, it has gone up and down, but the trend is still up. Way up.
Sure, it took a hit back in 2008, but didn’t the Dow go from ~14k to ~7K? Gold’s been rising steadily for 10 years, and the bull is still in town.
The point is, you can pick any time frame you want to show that any “investment” is
A. Great or,
B. Sucks
Where you need to be, is in the trend. I don’t have the time to hold anything for decades to wait for a decent return, be it a stock OR gold. But, I DO have the time to pay attention to what’s going on and move my wealth where it will do me the most good. And, that’s neither 100% stocks, nor 100% gold/silver; but, it’s not 10% gold either. 5 to 10% has been a traditional safekeeping level. In these times, I have a much higher safekeeping percentage, and the stocks I still have are very few and select.
I will be ready to move back to a greater percentage in stocks when an ounce of gold will buy the DJIA. AGAIN. As it has in the past.
PS. Why are those who put money in gold referred to as gold bugs, but those in stocks are not called “stock bugs”? Wouldn’t be the media, which is primarily sponsored by those who sell stocks and mutual funds, has anything to do with it? Seems like the financial shows are pretty much sponsored by brokerages and funds of one kind or another. Couldn’t push gold on one of those programs for very long, could you?
PPS. If the founding fathers say gold and silver are money in the Constitution, who are we to argue?
“Problem is at current value, all of the US gold holdings, if you believe they actually have it and Ron Paul has his doubts, only covers about four months of the national budget deficit.”
Specious argument. Or you simply don’t understand the issue. The point of having gold is not to pay off the deficit or debt. Never was.
I think it’s safe to say that gold is an accepted store of value globally, not just to some. And gold IS money. Just ask the central banks. It may not be used as currency under normal circumstances in daily transactions, but it is one of the few forms of real money that has been used by societies the world over for thousands of years.
Our “money” today is not real money. Don’t confuse currency with real money. Currency is not necessarily real money. I’m not saying our currency has no value, don’t get me wrong. It’s just not real money; it’s really an IOU for an IOU that you can trade for goods and services as long as people are confident that the IOUs can be paid back by future wealth. This has nothing to do with emotion. Like it or not, it’s simply historical fact.
And I wish people would stop with the doom-and-gloom, Mad Max, End of Days, societal collapse stuff already. It’s overblown and, frankly, getting tired as a defence—both for the pro-gold and anti-gold arguments..
An article that bugs of all kinds may want to read….pay particular attention to the Gold vs Money parts……like I said Gold may very well be a store of value to some, and I do not dispute that, but it is NOT money and it will NEVER replace Fiat.
http://armstrongeconomics.files.wordpress.com/2011/10/armstrongeconomics-gold-pulse-of-world-economy-101511.pdf
Danielle,
Wow, I sure do agree with you about the zealotry of gold & silver folks… even though that is my major investment area, I don’t see why they can’t be happy with their choices and simply go about their business… making them mad is like cutting in front of a mafia boss or walking by a PETA rally in a fur coat!
But I would offer one thought about your first comment on gold being a questionable investment. This is a rough approximation using charts off the internet, but if you look at the capital gains in gold (and silver) versus gas prices from 2006-to-present…
In 2006:
-One ounce of gold bought 250 gallons of gas; one ounce of silver bought 3.85 gallons;
In 2011:
-One ounce of gold bought 530 gallons of gas; one ounce of silver bought 11.0 gallons;
… that’s a doubling in gold and a tripling in silver! So, “honest money” and similar issues aside, I do think the capital gains from these can be impressive — and I do not think gold and silver values simply reflect “hyperinflation;” if that’s all it is, gas should be inflated too!
That’s just what works for me. Thank you again for your non-dogmatic, compassionate and level-headed commentary — it is so appreciated nowadays when so many commentators have so many axes to grind, banners to wave, and agendas to promote.
I’m not decided on whether a gold money standard would be good or bad, or even if it would be feasible today. It’s a complex issue, to say the least. Most people have no clue what a gold standard, in any of its many permutations, actually is. Some of what is mentioned in the article you linked to makes good sense (in the way that 20/20 hindsight always makes sense), and much of it is just sheer spin.
Your claims that gold is not money and that it will never replace fiat is the same kind of thinking that lead people to believe real estate could never go down. First it shows a lack of historical knowledge, and second it shows intellectual hubris that would seem to be unwarranted if your view on gold or money is based on the aforementioned article.
how do you explain physical golds outperformance to new highs? Hmmm?
Other than that, nice blog.
For a little history lesson on where the price of Gold has been and where it may be going interested people may want to take a look at the attached chart…it is quite simple, even gold bugs should be able to read it…….many of the gold bugs have said the metal will reach $2300 before it is over…it probably will given historical precedent….and I am betting on it….but the thing to remember is that at some point it will be OVER…..about the time the punters are lined up around the corner to buy bullion from the local dealer.
Manias are always the same whether it is tea or tulip bulbs, dot coms or residential real estate….reversion to the mean is always the end game.
Like trying to talk sense to a drunk.
Thirty.
http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=2314
Danielle, does your investment advisory firm ever publish its returns?
michael, you’re right.
But the thing is, by definition, when most people think they see a bubble, it either doesn’t exist or it’s nowhere near its popping point.
RE the charts, if they are using constant dollars, I could not find what “dollars” they are using. Also, the dotted portion of the 600-year chart means… what?
Anyway…
Barring some major change in monetary or fiscal policy, the gold bull looks like it has a very long way to run given how much “money” the central authorities are still going to have to print to save the banks and their sovereigns; and how desperate they are keep interest rates low (ala Japan). Gold may have huge swings, but at this point there is no reason to believe the secular bull market in gold is near the end, not by a long shot. I am a gold agnostic. I just call ’em like I see ’em.
The trick to riding the gold bull is like riding any other bull…you need to get in early and pick the low-hanging fruit.
If you show up later, and get emboldened by rising prices, you will need to get yourself a taller and taller ladder and expect the fruit to get smaller and more gnarly, some even wormy.
A word to the wise. If you did happen to load the boat in 2001-2003, sit tight. They aren’t going to get shooken out under 400, even 500. Buyers will show up when they feel the Price is Right. Isn’t that how bottoms are formed?
Gold bugs in for a Christmas treat…..the metal is severly oversold and due for a bounce …..one of my absolute favourite contrary indicators has just spewed forth ….here it is…
http://www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecchia/2011/12/12/gold-to-hit-1450-before-it-breaches-1800-gartman-says/
This is his track record from the market bottom in 2009……
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HAG.TO&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p14305535436
And he sells his advice??
Proof interim bottom may just be in for Gold….. here we have this entertainer quoting from Mr. Gartman’s lastest burst of wisdom……maybe he hasn’t seen his chart…..anyway the $U seems to have broken out and the shiny metal seems to have broken down so you get all these entertainers jumping on…..one day does not a trend make but two ……
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2011/12/13/divine-wealth/
Of course you could be wrong, right?
Right? Nobody is perfect. Gold can’t be printed ad infinitum. The price is negotiable, and is never for certain. Which is why gold is best traded.
” Buy right, sit tight…its your sitting that makes you the big money in the stock market”-Jesse Livermore.
sure. Jesse it should be remembered, lost his fortune three times and then committed suicide.
Yes but Jesse also ended up with $5mil which he gave to his wife before doing himself in. He ended it where he wanted. The life of a true trader. The thrill was gone.
sounds very romantic.
mommybomm…charts simply show current investor behavior and reveal the collective dollar-weighted vote bias for one asset or the other. The ‘market opinion’ is what every good analyst is trying to decipher…not their own. Think of it this way… ONE opinion in the grand-scheme of all the opinions, in all the investment houses and trading desks throughout the world is irrelevant (a grain of sand on the beach).
A good analyst is directionally agnostic. Cheers. C
or just a good trade.