With the extreme swings we have lived through over the past couple of years it can be difficult to get a cogent view. Sort of like holding a printed page at the end of your nose–you can see writing but you can’t grasp the point. This chart of the past 4 years in the TSX 60 (XIU) offers some clarity.
We can clearly see that the bulk of the cyclical rally off the ’09 lows came freakishly fast in 14 months, with a 65% gain from March 2009 to May 2010 on massive global fiscal and monetary stimulus. After that the market faltered listless for six months before breaking into another 16% up-leg on the next round of monetary juice via QE2 from November 2010 to April 2011. Since then amid all the noise of hype and hope, the TSX has faltered again, giving back to date, nearly all of the QE2 rally over the past year. Where to next oh fearless leader?
Source: Cory Venable, CMT, Venable Park Investment Counsel Inc.