US housing: further downside of 20% to complete mean reversion

Pimco’s Mark Kiesel and Gary Shilling debate US housing prices. Housing is an example of how the downdraft of bubble excess has a gravity greater than all the government intervention to stop the natural, inevitable course of mean reversion. One of these days, politicians and bankers will have to stop wasting public coffers to arrest the price clearing needed to restore health and value to asset markets. And then we will see the best investment opportunities in 30 years. It is coming… Here is the direct link.

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2 Responses to US housing: further downside of 20% to complete mean reversion

  1. JW says:

    PIMCO has such a close tie to the policy makers. You sometimes wander if they can stay objective. That being said, there is nothing wrong Mr. Kiesel buying a home. We all know a well built house in a good neighbourhood is always cost more. Specially, when you find a home your spouse and children like. A home is more than just an investment. On the other side, I think Mr. Shilling is probably right about the housing market in the US might go down another 20% in the next 3-5 years. JW, Langley BC

  2. aliencaffeine says:

    Your house may seem like a good investment as long as your state, county, town remain solvent. The roads around me are not quite top grade, meaning they are becoming substandard or ‘gravel’. Not enough money coming in for needed and timely repairs.

    And then there is the issue of neighbors, and neighboring stores. A lot of the dead commercial real estate here is drifting off to substand uses ie “Play it Again Sports”…..a dead Taco Bell….a dead Blockbuster….a dead exercise machine place…a dead exercise gym….and on and on….get the picture? It is insidious, but the decay goes on, and the rot sets in…..slowly so you almost don’t see it…..but the people who moved out years ago who return to visit friends see it immediately….and it seems to be coming to Vancouver Island.

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