The multi-trillion dollar question: which phase of this market cycle?

Good picture reminder courtesy of zerohedge.

Four and a half years since the last cycle peak, the question that every individual and capital allocator must answer for themselves: which phase of the market cycle are we most likely in today? No one gets precision or certainty. At every stage of every cycle we all have to make our best probability assessments, place our bets and live with the consequences. Except if you’re an investment bank of course; in which case: heads they win, tails the rest of us lose. But then again, the Bernank said in his testimony last week that “too big to fail” is no longer a reality, and new resolution rules provide for the orderly winding down of failed banks without taxpayer funded bailouts. He did say that on the record. One thing for sure, the next wave of the financial crisis will no doubt test all the rules and belief systems.

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