The plight of over-promising

The business media is clamoring to post headlines designed to talk capital flows back into risk markets this morning. So far it is not working. It is not that economic news has suddenly become dramatically worse. The global economy has been weakening for the past three years, and pretty dramatically over the past 10 months. The problem is that undue faith in the magic of central bankers has encouraged many to whistle past the graveyard of contracting world demand. The gaping disconnect between stock prices and economic reality, has now set markets up for a period of profound disappointment. All best case scenarios have been fully priced in. And by best case, risk traders mean increasing monetary stimulus for evermore. Now anything less than best case is disappointing–the plight of over-promising.

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