Daily Archives: August 2, 2013

Credit impulse in Asia and North America is negative

Credit revulsion is the rational response to the over-indulgence of the credit bubble. But moving away from credit means lower demand and weaker growth than most economists, central banks and politicians are currently forecasting. The dichotomy between European regulators’ push … Continue reading

Posted in Main Page | Comments Off on Credit impulse in Asia and North America is negative

Another mean reversion candidate

The S&P 500 disconnected from real demand last fall on QE. Sustainable? This time different? Source: Chart source Bloomberg via zerohedge

Posted in Main Page | Comments Off on Another mean reversion candidate

The reason we respect mean reversion

We bought interest sensitive, dividend paying equities in 2003 and 2009, after they had crashed lower by 50%. After soaring above reasonable value over the past three years on QE, we see evidence to suggest that the third price mean … Continue reading

Posted in Main Page | Comments Off on The reason we respect mean reversion

Fed will taper due to costs of QE not economic growth

This morning the July US jobs report missed optimistic forecasts and June’s previously reported number was revised lower. Most significantly, the labor force participation rate ticked down once more while personal income grew less than hoped and June’s income numbers … Continue reading

Posted in Main Page | Comments Off on Fed will taper due to costs of QE not economic growth