Third read on Q1 US GDP comes in this morning at -2.9% on lowered personal consumption, corporate profits and investment. All [unexpected] of course. Now we will hear from the multitude of talking heads who, did not see this coming but, will now explain why it is backward-looking and irrelevant that the largest economy in the world just registered its largest contraction since Q1 2009. They will all maintain high hopes for a strong rebound in the balance of 2014 of course. It should be noted in that regard however, that even if the final three quarters were able to rebound to an annualized growth rate of 3%, the full year growth rate for this year would still be just 1.52%. About half of the 3% forecasts widely espoused by the US Fed and the sell side financial crew. I know…the real economy doesn’t matter in this brave new world of central bank magic potions. Never worry, always be happy, always expect good news. Good luck.
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