Export currencies telling truth about global demand

The Canadian, Aussie and Japanese export currencies all peaked with the 2009 economic rebound in 2011. Currency markets are the largest and most liquid asset markets in the world. Notwithstanding concentrated attempts by large banks and other players, they are least amenable to the control of any one interest group–the closest to the ideal of perfect competition. Despite a mammoth price-pumping confidence (con) game by companies and bankers around the world in the relatively smaller risk markets since 2011 (stocks and high yield debt), export currencies have been moving lower, reflecting the truth about this economic cycle: the recovery coming out of the 2008 recession was short and shallow and ended in 2011. The contraction phase is back, and ‘growth’ assets are so far, wildly over-priced.

Cdn Aussie NZ $ Sept 2014

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