The vicious cycle of low yields and falling consumption

Global growth is evaporating. Since January 1st, no less than 15 ‘surprised’ central banks have cut lending rates in the hopes of stimulating exports by weakening their currency. When everyone wants to be more competitive through cheaper currencies, no one is more competitive with cheaper currencies. Global trade volumes are falling even as export prices are deflating, as shown in this chart courtesy of ECRI.

World trade 2015

For more relevant discussion on these points, here is a direct video link.

To which I would add, it is not just that low wage growth is hurting consumption.  Low interest and dividend rates (because stocks have been goosed to QE highs) are as well.

With a globe swimming in toxic debt levels, and the bulk of those who do have savings being over 50 and increasingly looking to live off their savings, low yields are also serving  to crimp consumption.  As central banks are stuck in the mad, destructive loop of trying to push rates lower, they are only making demand weaker.

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