Stock and corporate bond markets have soared since the US election in November. Bulls say bidding up assets that were already richly overvalued is all good, because demographics and debt be damned, the new Trump admin are business wizards and will make the US economy double its growth rate stat (it’s averaged 2.1% since 2009) to 4% to 2020. In reality, the math is not lining up with the confident thesis. In fact, as Goldman Sachs and many others have pointed out, Trump policies are actually like to lower, not raise, the economy’s growth trajectory from here.
Morgan Stanley’s EM Head: Trump Can’t Get 4% Growth.
Here is a direct video link.
Here is a chart of Goldman’s most bullish, base and expected growth projections, from the proposed fiscal stimulus through 2021.