The proliferation of gambling is a way to tax the poor and ignorant, and has enabled taxes on the wealthy to continue to fall. These trends are unsustainable; the question is, how do they end?
In this episode, Warren Buffett was asked will gambling companies have a great future? Here is a direct video link.
While the masses are addicted to blind speculation, all manner of insiders, from athletes to managers, corporate heads to politicians and even soldiers, are now using unfair advantage to profit from various forms of betting. See, Arrest of U.S. Soldier Signals Polymarket’s Wild-West Days Are Ending:
The arrest of a soldier charged with using classified information to place lucrative bets on Polymarket is a watershed moment for prediction markets, heralding a new era of stricter government enforcement of the wildly popular betting platforms.
It’s hard to see how this will get contained when leaders and rule-makers are permitted to freely capitalize on positions of trust, see Insider Trading: Who’s playing Who and Peter Girnus:
The President’s son sits on the advisory board of Kalshi. He is an investor in Polymarket. Both are prediction markets. Both saw accounts created days before U.S. military action. One account. I cannot stop thinking about this account. It was called “Burdensome-Mix.” It was created in December. On January 2nd, it placed $32,500 on Venezuela’s president being removed from power. On January 3rd, Maduro was seized by U.S. special forces. Burdensome-Mix collected $436,000. Then it changed its username. Then it disappeared. One account is a coincidence. But there were six. Six accounts were created on Polymarket in February. All bet on U.S. strikes on Iran by the 28th. When the President confirmed the strikes, the six accounts collected $1.2 million between them. Five of the six never placed another bet. The sixth went on to correctly predict the ceasefire date and made another $163,000. My surveillance system logged all of this. My system logs everything. My system does not have opinions and neither do I. I generate reports. The reports go to committees. The committees meet quarterly. Between meetings, the windows get shorter and the bets get larger. March 9th: 47 minutes. March 23rd: 14 minutes. April 17th: 20 minutes. April 21st: 15 minutes. The window is compressing. In March, you had time to make coffee between the trade and the announcement. By April, you had time to send a text. By summer, at this rate, the trade and the announcement will be the same event.
