Walmart just reported its weakest US sales growth in six years, and it could be an early warning that the American consumer is finally starting to crack. Walmart same-store sales grew only 2.6% year-over-year, while Albertsons reported declining comparable sales. Home Depot and Lowe’s are also showing weakness, with falling transactions and inflation-adjusted sales declines. At the same time, US retail sales dropped 0.6% in July, the biggest monthly decline since May 2025. That matters because consumer spending accounts for nearly 70% of the US economy. If Americans continue pulling back, the next step could be weaker corporate earnings, layoffs, rising unemployment, and eventually a broader recession.
And there’s another major warning sign: the US personal savings rate has fallen to just 3%, one of the lowest levels on record. Similar periods of extremely low savings occurred before the 2008 financial crisis and the dot-com crash. In this video, I break down the latest Walmart earnings, Albertsons, Target, Home Depot and Lowe’s sales data, the decline in US retail spending, and what it could mean for the stock market, economy and housing market heading into 2027.
Housing is already weakening in many parts of America. Home prices are falling across markets including Denver, Houston, Washington DC, Charlotte, Los Angeles and South Florida. If unemployment starts rising during a recession, those housing corrections could accelerate. Here is a direct video link.
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