Juggling Dynamite

Twelve percent of millennials identify as vegetarians and meat consumption in the U.S. fell 15% in 2015. Plant-based proteins are expected to make up a third of the protein market by 2054.

In a world of 7.4 billion people with rising diet-based illness, climate pollution and increasingly scarce water, vegan foods are an obvious growth area.  See: Country’s largest meat co just started a VC fund for vegan ‘meats’:

On Monday, America’s largest meat producer announced that it had launched Tyson New Ventures LLC, a $150 million venture capital fund to focus on companies that are developing “breakthrough” technology and business models in plant-based and sustainable protein options.

“We believe we can accelerate the growth of startups through our capabilities in such areas as food and culinary research and development, sourcing, insights, customer relationships and distribution. By doing so, we hope to materially advance the state of the U.S. and global food system.”

Animal spirits indeed:  Professor Shiller says that, near-term, Trump-euphoria is making him question the relevance of historically reliable valuation metrics.  (You mean ‘this time is different?’  Heard that one in 1998-2000 and 2006-08, as well).

Still he acknowledges that at current over-valuations, stocks are priced to under-perform 10-year Treasury bonds for the next decade (even though 10-year yields are less than 2.4% today) .  Translation: stay at the craps table and party for a while if you like, but realize the hangover is likely to cause capital deficits for the next 10 years, at least.  Good trade-off?  Here is a direct video link.

Robert Shiller, Yale University professor of economics, discusses why the current market environment is reminiscent of the stock market crash of 1929.

Here is the picture of relative valuations for US stocks since 1900.  Everyone has to decide how much of their savings they are willing to gamble with and can afford to lose.

Caught this documentary on Netflix last night: well worth the watch. All the usual behaviors and character types: bankers, international money laundering, fraud and greater fools. But also fascinating insight into the wine business.

Here is a direct video link to the trailer.