Juggling Dynamite

There is a new well-funded marketing campaign pounding the airwaves of late sponsored by Americans to Protect Family Security, which is a front for the life insurance and financial advisory industries. Their target is to undermine public support for the proposed new Department of Labor regulation that seeks to require the sellers of annuities, life insurance, and other such retirement products, to place their clients’ interest first.

If you have seen any of the adds and have even the slightest understanding of the very basic integrity trying to be implemented in this critical area where most people are highly vulnerable, the add campaign should sicken your guts and make you mad.  But the next thing we must all do, is refuse to accept investment advice from any firms that do not publicly subscribe to a fiduciary standard.  It’s just basic common sense.

For an excellent overview of the latest industry antics, see :  Retirement firms protecting their conflicts.

Market cycles during secular bear periods are repeatedly savage. Those who buy and ride valuations beyond reason on the upside repeatedly pay with sweat, tears and capital losses on the downside. Once markets move through their natural course of mean reverting prior exuberance, previously confident participants typically panic and liquidate, locking in permanent losses. But even those brave and patient believers who are able to resist selling and hold on through the cyclical declines are rewarded with lost years holding and hoping to make back capital losses. Financial types assure us this is progress. In truth it is the opposite.

The chart below shows the drawdowns, rallies, and negative capital progress for those holding the broad Canadian stock market (TSX composite) over the past 7 years since the summer of 2008. Of course when you add in the notional 3% annual dividends, the annual return becomes modestly positive over this holding period. That is if holders were not paying any investment fees or withdrawing any income from the portfolio.

Sure, in the heavily marketed, make-believe world of theoretical investment returns, no one ever panics and sells near market lows, or adds life savings near market highs, or pays any fees, or withdraws any income, and they always have cash and nerve to buy more at market bottoms–yep, in theory there is nothing to detract from the magic of compound growth assumptions. Sure in that world–the one laid out in finance marketing materials–investing our savings in capital markets is a no-brainer.

One can imagine that few will be content to ‘hold’ their equity exposure as the bear market deflates market prices from current levels and possibly back towards the 2009 lows–or even lower. The resource heavy Canadian Venture Index has already broken below the 2008 Great Recession lows as shown here. No reprieve is yet in sight.

Shown below since 2000 (in bright color for the weekend!), US 10 year Treasury yields have traditionally been smarter than the equity market in determining turning points in the economy.  Today the gap between the two indicators is positively garish as yields turned down with economic growth in 2011 and US stocks did a Wile E. Coyote off the QE cliff.  Mind the splat below…

Here is some further commentary from my partner and technician Cory Venable.