Let’s talk money

Happy Friday!! Today, I am sharing a story from a reader, with their permission. It reminds us of the power in sharing honest, unbiased information, free of any sales pitch, especially in foundational areas like personal finance. I’ll add a few thoughts at the end. Thanks, OD, for this:

Greetings! I have just finished reading your excellent book, Juggling Dynamite. It is fantastic! Reading the chapter near the end, entitled “The Keys,” brought a story to mind about personal finances.

For eight years, starting in the mid-nineties, I taught printing at a high school in Oregon.

At that time, the printing industry in the USA was booming. So much so that on any given day, there were sixty thousand unfilled job openings in printing firms large and small, and a dearth of employees with entry-level skills.

Given the magnitude of the trained labour shortage, the industry as a whole reached out to high schools and community colleges, offering funding and a curriculum to introduce students to a career in the printing industry. Measures were taken to find experienced printers who would go into teaching, and I was in the right place at the right time, with the right skill set and personality to leap from the press room to the classroom.

One day during a class lecture, I explained to my intro-level students that there were plenty of local jobs in print shops. The jobs always paid minimum wage to start, but the skilled labour shortage was so significant that employers would quickly give raises to the promising entry-level workers.

In the back of my small lecture room, Adam, a senior who needed an elective credit to graduate, said very loudly, “Minimum wage is more than enough to live on.” I ignored him and continued my lecture. “As I was going to say, if you get a job in a local printing company and you are doing well, the company is going to want to keep you, and they will give you a raise.” Adam piped up again. “Mr. D, why would I care about getting a raise when all I need to live on is minimum wage?”

At this point, I decided that ignoring Adam was only going to get more distracting, so I said to the class, “Hey, everyone, I’ve got a few things to go over with Adam, and I’m going to do it right now. It’s going to take about ten minutes. Nobody besides Adam needs to pay any attention – I just ask that you be quiet.”

“Now, Adam,” I said, standing at the chalkboard, We are going to go over your budget. Assuming you work forty hours a week, and we take 15% out of your gross pay for taxes, how much money does your paycheck give you?” We did the calculation, and I wrote it down at the top of the board. “Great. Let’s go through your expenses. Now, is it fair for me to assume you are going to live with your parents for free?”

“No way!” said Adam vehemently. “I’m going to rent an apartment.” We discussed the monthly rent cost and wrote down the number. Then I said, “What about cable?”

“I need basic cable plus HBO,” came the reply. Again, I wrote down the cost. “How much is your car costing you? Repairs, insurance? Groceries?” Again, I wrote down numbers on the chalkboard.

“How about entertainment, Adam?” Adam looked at me and very proudly said,Every week my girlfriend and I go out to dinner and a movie.” “I presume you go Dutch?” I asked. “No way! I always pay!” He was very proud of this weekly ritual. Again, I wrote a number on the board.

As we worked through the things he would need money for, I noticed that the rest of the class was paying rapt attention. Finally, I totalled the expenses column. “Adam, I have one question for you. Who is going to loan you five hundred dollars a month so that you can live on minimum wage?” The class giggled, Adam muttered something inaudible, and I directed the students to get to work on their projects.

I thought to myself, well, that was probably a big waste of time.

Two years later, the bell rang throughout the school as classes ended. The halls swelled with noisy high school students making their way to the next class as I stood in the hall supervising the kids, and who do I see navigating towards me amidst a sea of chattering adolescents but Adam, who had graduated just a few months after our budget exercise.

“Mr. D! I came back to school to say hi to my old teachers, and I really am glad to see you! You probably don’t remember, but one day in class, you showed me how a personal budget works. I told him that I remembered that day very well. “Here’s the thing, Mr. D, up until you did that, I literally did not know that I needed more than minimum wage to live even a basic life. Nobody had ever explained it to me. Understanding that really was a game-changer for me. I owe you a huge thanks for what you did by taking time to show me.”

I was blown away. My mom taught me this stuff when I was a young teenager, and I always assumed everyone knew this common-sense stuff.

Now I don’t know how it was that Adam could get all the way to grade twelve without understanding that making more than minimum wage is essential to support life’s needs. But after seeing Adam again and talking with several members of the high school teaching staff, I learned that personal finance was rarely taught at my high school anymore. It’s probably fair to say that not much has changed when we look at the current stats on personal debt and bankruptcies. Getting debt-free is so important to achieving one’s long-term financial goals.

How are people to learn without someone explaining and modelling wise financial behaviours? Most of us learn the hard way, sometimes repeatedly.

As a volunteer, I have led the Junior Achievers Personal Finance Course in schools and found it to be excellent. OD’s story reminds me to fit in some more of that.

The Game of LIFE, created in 1860 by Milton Bradley and updated since, is illuminating; Monopoly, patented in 1904, is too. Both are timeless and perfect for the holiday time with friends and family; excellent for catalyzing financial discourse in a fun way.

Studies suggest that parents would rather talk to their kids about sex than money. In other words, many don’t discuss it, and because most weren’t educated in personal finance, it’s hard to share what we don’t know. As we get older, it can feel vulnerable and embarrassing to admit gaps in our understanding.

Unfortunately, most so-called financial experts are trained and paid as salespeople for insurance, debt, real estate and other investment products, so that agenda dominates their recommendations and can trump the best interests of clients as the focus.

As I explained in Juggling Dynamite (2007), I got through undergrad, law school, stockbroker and insurance certifications without learning key financial principles. I have many learned friends who have admitted they know little about money management.

The best thing about completing a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation 22 years ago was that it helped me see the difference between math-based analysis and sales puff; it gave me permission to ask questions and call out things that make no sense. In a world of naked emperors, independent thought is the most helpful tool of all.

I am not likely to write much on the blog over the holidays. I wish you peace, gratitude, and love.

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The truth about tax rates

Tax collection from the wealthiest individuals and corporations has fallen worldwide since World War 2, while government subsidies, bailouts and support programs favouring the wealthiest constituents have soared.

The plunging US corporate income tax revenue as a portion of GDP (below since 1934) reflects a trend that has played out across all OECD countries.At the same time, the highest federal marginal tax rate for individuals was continually lowered from 94% in 1944 to about 28% in 1988 (US, red line below, since 1913). It’s 37% today.In Canada, the general corporate tax rate has fallen from 50% in 1982 to 26% in 2020, while the top marginal personal tax rate has fallen from 80% in 1972 to 60% until 1981, to 33% today.

An increasing dependence on consumption taxes and rising government debt has replaced declining tax revenue. Reduced federal transfer payments to provinces and states have increased dependence on ‘sin’ taxes on things like alcohol, cannabis, gambling, gaming, and lotteries.

Now, we have an aged population where public debt charges and elderly benefit expenses are growing impossibly faster than the economy (projected below for Canada from 2026 through 2030). Something has to give. Smaller government spending is desirable, and waste should be reduced wherever possible. But a civil society cannot run on cuts alone. We can’t get meaningful revenue from people who make little and have less, and we can’t pay for the future if young people are not engaged and launching households of their own. These facts require our collective attention and adult thinking as we evaluate policy paths from here.

The discussion below is on point.

Michael Green, Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Simplify Asset Management, joins Julia La Roche on episode 318 to break down his viral three-part series on America’s real poverty line, revealing why families making $100,000-$140,000 are trapped in what he calls the “valley of death” – where government benefits are withdrawn before cash earnings can replace them. He explains how childcare costs, benefit cliffs, and tax code changes since the 1950s have made the American Dream nearly impossible for young families, why economists reacted so negatively to his work, and how the official poverty line ($31,200) is completely disconnected from reality. Green also discusses the implications for markets, predicting a 1929-style crash from passive investing flows, and shares what gives him hope: human potential and the power of free people over slaves. Here is a direct video link.

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All in and more

US job growth remained sluggish in November, and the unemployment rate rose to a four-year high of 4.6% (Bureau of Labor Statistics data out today), up 120 basis points (bps) from the April 2023 low of 3.4%.

A 120-bps rise in the US unemployment rate has never occurred in the post-war era without a recession either starting or already underway (grey bars below since 1948).

The Treasury market thinks the US Fed is more likely to cut interest rates in January, with the Fed-leading two-year Treasury yield down to 3.48%, the lowest since July 31, 2022.

So far, risk markets are retreating, led by Bitcoin, down 30% since October 6; Oracle shares, down 42% since September 22; and oil prices (WTIC), sub-$56 a barrel — the lowest since February 2021 (nearly 6 years ago).

The AI trade is wobbling under fears of overbuild, extreme valuations, circular deals and elusive revenue. See, Wall Street Sees AI Bubble Coming and Is Betting on What Pops It:

Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon.com Inc. and Meta Platforms Inc. are projected to spend more than $400 billion on capital expenditures in the next 12 months, most of it for data centers. While those companies are seeing AI-related revenue growth from cloud-computing and advertising businesses, it’s nowhere near the costs they’re incurring.

“Any plateauing of growth projections or decelerations, we’re going to wind up in a situation where the market says, ‘Ok, there’s an issue here,’” said Michael O’Rourke, chief market strategist at Jonestrading.

Earnings growth for the Magnificent Seven tech giants, which also includes Apple Inc., Nvidia and Tesla Inc., is projected to be 18% in 2026, the slowest in four years and slightly better than the S&P 500, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.

Rising depreciation expenses from the data center binge is a major worry. Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta combined for about $10 billion in depreciation costs in the final quarter of 2023. The figure rose to nearly $22 billion in the quarter that just ended in September. And it’s expected to be about $30 billion by this time next year.

All of this could put pressure on buybacks and dividends, which return cash to stockholders. In 2026, Meta and Microsoft are expected to have negative free cash flow after accounting for shareholder returns, while Alphabet is seen roughly breaking even, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.

Financial markets have rarely been so richly valued as today, and there has never been a time when the S&P 500 had a Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings ratio (CAPE) above 40x (like now) that yielded a positive investment return over the following 1, 3, 5 or 10-year period. Still, as noted by the BIS in its December 2025 Quarterly Review this week, investors are taking the over on that bet.

And with leverage: US margin debt (borrowing against investment portfolios) has reached a record $1.2 trillion, up 36% year-to-date.

So-called professionals are risk-drenched too with fund manager cash levels at a record low of 3.3% (Chart 1 below since 1999), sentiment the highest since the 2021 peak (Chart 2 below,) and those overweight equities and commodities also the highest since the 2021 top (dark blue in Chart 3 below, overshooting ISM manufacturing in light blue), all courtesy of Bank of America (via Macro Charts).
No one can be sure when mean reversion will complete, but the pieces are in place for a historic loss cycle, and very few will have liquid cash to take advantage of clearance sales. The time to prepare is before storms hit, and individuals need to look out for themselves.

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