Liquidation mode

Welcome asset price deflation: motivated sellers are listing everything, everywhere, all at once. And this is with unemployment just starting to rise. Wait for it…

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Increasing the primary residence housing stock

All the talk about needing to deflate the cost of housing is finally getting serious.

This week, B.C.’s NDP government tabled the Short-Term Rental Accommodations Act that, if passed, will ban most short-term rentals that aren’t within an operator’s principal residence. Effective May 1, the new restriction would apply in municipalities with a population of 10,000 people or more and in smaller communities within 15 kilometres of a larger city.

The change would force thousands of AirBnB-style properties to convert to lower-yielding long-term rentals while negative carrying costs prompt more listings for sale. See, ‘I just hope my investment doesn’t come crashing down on me:’ B.C. Airbnb owner responds to proposed crackdown:

It will effectively wipe out the business model for real estate investors and property management companies with dozens of short-term rental listings. Under the new rules, they will have to convert those units to long-term rentals or face hefty fines.

Increasing the supply of properties for primary residence should help deflate housing costs via lower rents and home prices. While painful for investors, policy changes are necessary to bring shelter costs back in line with long-term affordability norms. Provinces like Ontario are likely to follow suit.

A decade-plus of near-zero interest rates and speculator-friendly incentives encouraged capital misallocation and a massive housing bubble. Normalized interest rates are now leading the take-back phase.

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Bonds offer capital defence, equities do not

Unlike bonds, equities offer no return of principal dates nor contractually prescribed income payments. Contrary to the investment sales hype bombarding us daily, dividend-paying equities are not capital ‘defensive.’ Defensive for whom, we should ask.

From present valuation levels, equities are priced to underperform government bonds by 6.5% annualized over the next ten years (see arrow below, courtesy of John Hussman):

“…the gap in expected returns between equities and bonds has joined the worst levels in history, matched only by extremes in mid-1929 and early-2000.” hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc2310

Komal Sri-Kumar, Sri-Kumar Global Strategies president, joins ‘Closing Bell: Overtime’ to discuss the impact of the Israel-Hamas war on inflation, what this means for fixed income returns, and more. Here is a direct video link.

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