Juggling Dynamite

David Rosenberg, founder & president of Rosenberg Research and Ed Devlin, founder of Devlin Capital, senior fellow at C.D. Howe Institute and former head of Canadian portfolio management at PIMCO, join BNN Bloomberg to discuss their economic outlook. They say that even as many believe a soft landing is still accomplishable, there are some metrics suggesting the economy is already in a recession. Here is a direct video link.

Also, read this excellent overview: Canada is beating the US into recession.

What about wealthy people not being hurt by higher debt payments? Nonsense, as usual! As financial markets tumble, luxury spending follows. The slowdown is ubiquitous, folks.

CNBC’s Robert Frank reports on spending pull backs from the luxury consumer and what it could be signaling for the economy at large. Here is a direct video link.

Bank of America’s Consumer Checkpoint Survey for September 2023 found that high-income households have become more pessimistic about the economy. The same group also appears more cautious about spending because of soft wage growth and job creation for high earners.

Watch the video below to find out more about how the so-called “richcession” could affect the entire economy.

Hoisington Management’s Third Quarter 2023 Review and Outlook is now available. This is no sugary snack soundbite, but it’s five pages worth digesting. See Impending Recession. Here’s a taste:

The peak in the financial cycle occurred in the fourth quarter of 2021, seven quarters ago. This is right in the middle of the five to nine-quarter average monetary policy lag since World War II.

Monetary conditions have steadily tightened through the end of the third quarter of 2023 and the process is widely expected to hold through the end of the year, and possibly even into 2024.

Historically, these more restrictive conditions will expose, through bankruptcy and liquidation, those who took excessive risk during the monetary largess of 2020 until early 2022.

Through September, the yield curve between the two- and ten-year Treasury yields has remained inverted for over twelve months. As Duke Professor Campbell Harvey’s research has shown, this barometer has, without exception, preceded each of the last eight recessions over the course of seventy years. Such developments point the economy in the direction of an economic downturn and lower inflation