Neil Barofsky on JP Morgan’s “hedging” losses

Here is a point typically missed in the hours of breathless banter on bankers’ “hedging strategies”. Leverage magnifies risk: it increases profits on the way up and predictably vaporizes capital when asset prices reverse course. On the opposite end of the spectrum– a true hedge neutralizes risk. A hedge is designed to make the risk free rate-today nil–with no gains and no losses.

For several years now, Investment bankers have been trading with leverage for profit, and calling it hedging. This would be their own suicide mission if they were doing it on their own risk. But they have not. They have kept the gains, and given tax payers all the losses, because they are now improperly under the protection of Central Bankers and governments who are mandated to backstop the banking system. The solution is simple. Separate banks from risk traders. Let the “traders” live and die by their own sword. How much pain must the world endure before this simple rule is reinstated?

Neil Barofsky, former special inspector for the U.S. Treasury’s Troubled Asset Relief Program and a Bloomberg Television contributing editor, talks about JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s $2 billion trading loss. Here is the direct link.

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Danielle’s weekly market update with Talk Digital Network

Danielle was a guest today with Phil Mackesy on Talk Digital Network discussing recent developments in the global economy and markets.  You can listen to the audio clip here.

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James Montier shines light on the “The flaws of finance”

James Montier is a member of the asset allocation team at GMO UK Ltd. Previously, he was co-head of global strategy at Société Générale S.A. and a global equity strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort. Mr. Montier is the author of several books, including Behavioural Investing, Value Investing, and Behavioural Finance. He is a visiting fellow at Durham University and a fellow of the Royal Society of Arts. Mr. Montier holds a BA in economics from the University of Portsmouth and an MSc in economics from the University of Warwick.

He gave a useful presentation at the CFA Institute’s Annual Conference this week where he systematically reveals the dangerous nonsense underpinning modern portfolio theory so widely followed in finance today.

Here is a direct link to the clip. You will need to advance the play bar to 18:40 to where Montier is introduced.

There are many gems in his talk–such a refreshing relief to hear someone call bullshit rubbish on conventional wisdom in this area.  (I gave a similar talk at the CFA Institute Conference in Atlanta in 2008.  It was well received, and completely unheeded by the industry, of course.)  Existing business models in the money industry are so flawed, endemic and misguided that it is very slow to evolve changes needed.  And so the firms, advisors and clients will apparently keep learning hard lessons the hard way for a few more years to come.

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