Confusion, conflicts and self–serving endorsements

I have great sympathy for the average person trying to navigate financial markets, products and “advice”. The financial world is a hornet's nest rampant with self-serving “advisors” and products. No doubt consumers can be gullible and are often key players in their own pain. Many make bad choices based on lack of due diligence, greed and blind trust. On the other hand, every time we require a service or recommendation in areas beyond our own expertise we inevitably must trust that the person we retain will make a good faith effort to help us. This is vulnerability which we all face everyday.
The biggest problem with the financial services industry is that most participants are actually in the product sales business rather than the risk management business, but they routinely offer self-serving salesmanship as trusted advice and recommendations.
This clip of a CBS investigation into a gold coin company reveals the common web of celebrity, undisclosed self-interest, and how it is frequently used to exert undue influence and financial damage on the unsuspecting:

Other times, financial products are promoted as low-fee, do-it-yourself access for retail investors. Commodity investing has been a hot bed of new products in this vein over the past few years as the secular bear market in stocks drives desperate consumers to seek “alternative” strategies. See this Bloomberg clip on the dangers inherent in some of the commodity ETF products.
At the end of the day none of these highly volatile products are safe for the unsophisticated buyer to blindly buy and hope. The hype and promotion surrounding gold and commodity products today smacks more of other notorious marketing frenzies of the past rather than investing. Buyers, be very wary. Most people lack the skill, understanding and risk controls to safely use them. Most would be better off to avoid them altogether. (No matter what their salesforce will tell you).

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Two of the more useful commentators with a couple of practical stimulus ideas

Keith McCullough and Barry Ritholtz talk to CBS Moneytalk.
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HoweStreet.com interview and why we need to sell to avoid losses

Yesterday I spoke with Stirling Faux about recent rate trends and the growth outlook. You can hear the 15 min clip here.
A couple of readers have asked me this week why I don't advocate the idea of continuing to hold “defensive” or dividend paying stocks during a bear market. The reason (as I have explained many times) is that stocks, even defensive stocks, in modern markets are heavily correlated. When the trends break down, they do so pretty much across the board. Holding on to something paying you a dividend of 2, 3, 5, or even 10% makes no sense if share prices drop 20-45% while you are holding them. Recall that during secular bear markets (like we are in presently) cyclical pull-backs tend to take back 100% of the prior cycle gains. Bear market declines typically register in the -45% range, and cyclical recoveries are lucky if they make back 80-100% of the prior cycle losses. So throwing your capital under the bus to try and collect a fraction of your losses in income is nonsensical. This is especially true if you have already amassed the bulk of your life savings or are trying to live off of your capital in retirement.
Last night I happened to read the daily remarks from veteran Dow Theorist Richard Russell who was answering a similar question from some of his readers. He had this to say:
“Some subscribers tell me, “Look Russell, I'm holding on to five stocks that are doing well, despite today's rotten climate. All five of these stocks show rising earnings, and two have actually increased their dividends. So I'm going to stay with these seven OK?
Not OK. Here's the point I want to get across. The big killer in a primary bear market is not necessarily the lousy economy. The big killer is always a collapse in price/earnings. It's what investors will pay for earnings in a bear market. Your seven stocks may have a current average price/earning ratio of 18. But at the bear market bottom, the price/earnings (this is what investors are willing to pay for earnings) may drop to 6 or 8. Imagine where your “great” stocks will be (and they're still doing well) if their average price/earnings drop from the current 18 down to 6 or 8. Yes, the real killer in a bear market is often a collapse in the price/earnings ratio.
Another argument — Russell, taxes, I can't afford to pay the taxes on some of my long-term holdings.
My answer — OK, then sit with your long-term holdings through the bear market. By the time the bear market hits its lows, believe me, you won't have any tax problems.”
Ah yes, the “I am collecting dividends” and “I don’t want to trigger capital gains” excuses for not protecting capital from big draw-downs…typical responses from people who routinely lose money “investing”.

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