Lessons from the whaling industry

The whaling industry was the very icon of American prosperity for over 100 years.  Its revenue drove jobs, homes, businesses and fortunes.  Then the whales were gone.  The decline in whale populations was evidently underway by 1840 when hunters ignored depleting stocks and continued to harpoon everything that swam.  The story stands as a lesson on how greed and the relentless thirst for profit without thoughtful planning, in the end consumes itself.  Humans are slow learners.  Habits are stubborn even when the painful end is vividly in view.  Fishing industries around the world are closing daily as reckless fishing practices have exploited countless species to extinction.  In North America alone over the past 10 years, commercial populations of cod, hake, haddock and flounder have fallen by up to 95 percent.  The fishing industry too will soon be a story from the past.  Oh well, onward ho, what else can we harvest for a profit?

The only way to succeed longer-term on this planet is to embrace “sustainable” planning of our resources.  Some encouraging stories on this front are discussed in Andrew Savitz's new book, “The Triple Bottom Line:  How Today's best-run companies are achieving economic, social, and environmental success-and how you can too.” (2006) Josey-Bass:

“Correctly understood and applied, sustainability is about strategy, management, and profits.  But in today's interconnected world, thinking about profits as if they were unrelated to the economic and social impacts of what you do to get them is shortsighted and counterproductive.  Social and environmental issues are creating risks and opportunities that fundamentally change the playing field for individual firms, industries, and business itself.  The best-run companies see this and are turning these trends to their advantage.”

One small thought for the day:  now that many of us are recycling paper at work, how many of us are also buying recycled paper as our product of choice? 

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More investors take risk of buying stocks with loans – USATODAY

There has been a lot of banter of late about whether or not the retail investor has been much involved with recent rallies in the stock market.  The bulls argue that the retail investor has not yet joined in and thus when they do they will provide even more buying pressure to push this wave.  Perhaps they will buy in more as this mania goes along.  But critical thought must ask:  if retail investors aren't yet in, then why are margin loans with brokerage houses at peak levels once again.  See More investors take risk of buying stocks with loans-USA today.

The attached chart from contraryinvestor.com says it best.    It is the hallmark of every major market bubble that borrowing to invest becomes widely practiced. 

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"There will be blood in the street" and other pleas for "sanity"

Today Bloomberg reports that Bank of America CEO Lewis says the so called credit bubble of the past 6 years is about to break.  Look out below.  See Bank of America Lewis calls for lending 'Sanity': http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_en&refer=home&sid=aT7p.papJIlA.  In December Wells Fargo CEO Kovacevich said “history says this will blow up.  It always has.  And there will be some blood in the street.”

For those of us who have been worried about the abuse of credit for a while now, there is a feeling of hope that comes from hearing such admissions.  Maybe not the whole world has gone stark-raving mad?  Or perhaps its just as Charles Mackay wrote men go mad in herds while they recover their senses slowly and one by one.

Some of us have been feeling a bit helpless and co-dependnet as we watch debt-addicted masses spend their way to prosperity.  Unfortunately, as we know, it seems most addicts must hit rock bottom and lose everything before they will turn their lives around.  And so we wait for this crazy time to blow its brains out.

I have a few cousins in the UK who have also been sending me glowing reports of the realty markets over there in the past couple of years as regular folks quit their jobs to become land-barrons-over-night.  Everyone is very excited and very impressed by remarkable returns.  Again a little sparkle of sanity glimmered in the UK Observor this weekend:  See  The crash is coming and it could be soon.  http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,2073607,00.html

We look forward to this storm finally breaking and then blowing back out to sea.  Then we can get back to work making real lasting money where skill and prudent habits are rewarded over the fleeting flash of dumb, reckless risk.

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