‘Snow-washing’ in Canada, money laundering all star

I have long thought that a housing bust and ugly recession might finally catalyze a serious crackdown on money laundering in Canada. Apathy has been the status quo while asset prices were rising. Now, as prices plunge and pain spreads, public tolerance should shift.

Realty reports show that many properties bought in early 2022 are being sold months later, with losses greater than 20%. Rapidly vaporized capital begs questions about who is taking such losses and whether washing illicit funds was the objective.

The recent Agenda discussion with Steve Paikin is a good primer on the present state of affairs and how it is aided and abetted by weak regulation and oversight, as well as many accountants, lawyers, lenders, casinos, financial firms, politicians and real estate agents that continue to profit from tainted transactions and funds. Wilful blindness is very expensive for our country as a whole.

In 2019, the U.S. State department called Canada a “major money laundering country.” And just this past summer, the picture of what that looks like became much clearer with British Columbia’s Cullen Commission, which detailed the millions of dollars being cleaned through casinos, real estate, and fake financial transactions of myriad sorts. To help us understand this issue, we welcome Marc Tassé, forensic accountant and lecturer at the University of Ottawa’s Faculty of Law and at the Telfer Executive MBA program; Sasha Caldera, Beneficial Ownership Transparency campaign manager at the non-governmental organization, Publish What You Pay Canada; and Rita Trichur, senior business writer and columnist for the Globe and Mail.   Here is a direct video link.

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Operation ‘break things’ to continue

Hiking the US Fed funds rate a further .75 yesterday, now 3 to 3.25% (from 0 to .25% in March), Chair Powell acknowledged that unemployment will rise, adding: “Nonetheless, we’re committed to getting inflation back down to 2%.” Powell reiterated that his board plans to raise US base rates a further 1.25% (4.25 to 4.5%) by year-end.

The Fed’s GDP growth forecast was lowered to just .2% in 2022 and 1.2% in 2023 and well below the 2.5% US GDP growth capacity estimate–a whopping slack in resource utilization. This is the closest a central bank will ever come to acknowledging an incoming recession. 

The US dollar index (DXY) leapt 1% to a 20-year high above $111, and stock and commodity markets slumped, with every S&P 500 sector lower on the day.

The US 2 and 30-year Treasury yield curve inverted 58bps, the most since 2000, with short-term yields rising and long-term rates rolling over on the weakening economic outlook.

Word to the wise: historically, equity markets have not bottomed until after the Fed abandons its tightening plans and slashes rates again for several months, dropping short yields and re-steepening the yield curve.

If December 2022 ends this hiking cycle, followed by loosening efforts again in the first half of 2023, it could suggest a stock market bottom sometime in late 2023. Only time will tell.

The last six months of falling asset prices have been about rising interest rates (lower discounted cash flows), negative real wages and slowing consumption (sales). The following six will likely be focused on negative earnings trends and financial contagion, with credit strain and defaults spreading through highly levered corporations and households globally.

As central banks now break the asset bubbles they helped to form, the return of principal is back in vogue, and the yields for cash and the most secure bonds–the highest since 2007–offer an attractive harbour from capital implosion. This is when North American government bonds typically outperform.

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The recession is already here

Worthwhile overview of many key economic trends now in motion…

Danielle DiMartino Booth of Quill Intelligence believes it’s obvious that a recession is already upon us, and it might only get worse from here. She joins Jay to discuss inflation, supply constraints, the housing market and, perhaps most importantly, how to protect your wealth in our current economic environment. Here is a direct video link.

A note regarding the discussion about investing in companies with high free cash flow: high free cash flow and low debt significantly increase the likelihood that companies (and households) make it through periods of recession and other adversity–essential. It does not mean asset prices will not lose value during bear markets and take years to recover your entry price (even if the companies survive long-term).

Before buying any investment, it is essential to consider the years it could take to recoup our principal and ensure that it works within our overall investment plan and risk tolerance. Individual bonds (not funds or ETFs) have prescribed maturity dates and semi-annual interest payments. There are zero assurances with things like real estate, commodities, cryptocurrencies, and equities. Eyes wide open.

 

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