Juggling Dynamite

Dave talks about where we are now, including an update on Dave’s recession call, what he thinks about inflation, and how the Federal Reserve will react. Raoul also gets Dave’s view on what markets will do and whether he agrees with Raoul’s “buy bonds, wear diamonds” call. As ever, a conversation between Raoul and Dave is a must-watch, even if their views don’t match your own. These are difficult times, and we need to account for all possible scenarios. Recorded on July 28th, 2022. Here is a direct video link.

Wishing a safe and enjoyable Labour Day weekend to all!! Winter is coming!

Danielle was a guest with Jim Goddard on Talk Digital Network, talking about recent developments in the world economy and markets. Here is a direct video link.

Forty percent of the consumer price index (CPI) is goods (half of them imported to America). The US dollar at a 20-year high against major trading partners is a massive disinflationary force for US consumers. At the same time, it’s demand-crushing for other importing countries and non-US debtors who today owe record amounts of US dollars.

The chart below (courtesy of Liz Ann Sonders) shows the rapid easing in commodity shortages (blue) and pricing (yellow). As usual, inflation and the urge for central banks to tighten monetary conditions will follow these impulses lower, at a lag.

Is there a recession down the corner? Should the dips be bought? The master of business cycles, Lakshman Achuthan (@businesscycle ) of Economic Cycle Research Institute chats with @latha_venkatesh (1/2) pic.twitter.com/WSgmBdULdU

— CNBC-TV18 (@CNBCTV18News) August 30, 2022