Juggling Dynamite

Lived experience tends to influence thinking, especially regarding financial decisions. Whether the latest memories are smooth sailing or adversity, it’s typical to expect more of the same, discounting the undulation of cycles.

The March 2020 market freefall was highly unusual in its brevity. As the world economy unexpectedly shut down, many found a windfall of free time and government handouts coupled with an internet full of speculative suggestions. As unusual inflows spiked prices, many erroneously believed that the escalation into 2022 was ‘normal.’ Others with more experience should have known better but forgot or decided that this time was different.

It’s well-documented that the masses over-confidently funnel most into assets near cycle tops (often borrowing to do so) and the least near cycle bottoms. Indiscriminate buying can look smart in bull markets where pullbacks are fleeting. But once cyclical downturns arrive to grind prices down over months, and even years, early dip-buying is a time-worn path to psychological and financial frailty.

Exhausted retail buyers finally morphing into panicked liquidators helps catalyze bear market bottoms and the most valuable investment opportunities for those at the ready. We aren’t there yet.

Stocks and stock funds made up a whopping 70% of retail holdings at the end of May, and while the average portfolio loss is down more than 30% year to date, net retail flows have not yet turned negative. History and understanding of human nature promise that they will. At that point, strong hands will once more be buying from the weak. See ‘Buy the dip’ faith has a last bastion: individual investors:

Both official flow-of-funds data and ASCII surveys show that the share of their portfolios U.S. households allocate to stocks jumped during the Covid-19 crisis to hover around historic highs, and has only come off slightly this year.

However, investors of any stripe can only tolerate so much pain. As of Tuesday, the average retail portfolio measured by VandaTrack was down 32% from its previous peak. And this hasn’t been a lightning-fast correction like in early 2020, but painfully drawn-out across six months.

…But if the selloff resumes and they stop believing that the market can fly, they might also remove one of the few forces keeping it in the air.

Danielle Park and David Rosenberg join Jay on the 2022 VRIC stage to give their views on ways investors can both protect their wealth from the coming recession and potentially thrive in a bear market by embracing secular trends in the market. Danielle and David reach into their decades of combined investing experience to provide ways to recession proof your portfolio and keep ahead of the crowd in an increasingly turbulent and uncertain stock market.  Here is a direct video link.

The video below from the Wall Street Journal offers a helpful refresher on how asset bubbles move. Worth the 7 minutes.

Asset bubbles are easy enough to define, but not so simple to identify. WSJ’s Gunjan Banerji explains what bubbles are exactly, how they form and what happens when they burst. Here is a direct video link.

It is pretty easy for clear-eyed analysis to see asset bubbles. The challenge is in predicting when they will burst. But the bust is assured. The chart below shows the price cycle during some of the most infamous bubbles since 1977. Bitcoin (and the crypto-mania around it) is genuinely a standout. Also, see The fire burning beneath crypto’s meltdown:

The irony in all this is that part of the original appeal of crypto was the cap on how many bitcoin can ever exist, something supposed to prevent the sort of unlimited money creation that worries many critics of government-issued, or “fiat,” currencies. Rather than unlimited creation of bitcoin, crypto ended up with unlimited proliferation of new tokens. The new structures of intermediaries and defi tools allowed even bitcoin to be reused or lent on, meaning multiple people thought they owned the same token. Lender Celsius Network is an extreme example: Those who deposited bitcoin and other tokens there were promised high interest rates, but have been unable to get their coins—which Celsius lent out—back.