Juggling Dynamite

The subscriber-based treadmill and fitness company amassed a cult following in the early days of the pandemic, pushing the stock price to euphoric highs. Then everything changed. Individual company narratives vary, but stock declines over 70% are typical after extreme over-valuations.

Peloton has been on a wild ride, announcing its CEO was stepping down and thousands of jobs would be cut, despite seeing a surge in sales early in the pandemic. Here’s why Peloton became a viral success, and why it’s spinning out now.  Here is a direct video link.

This segment is a worthwhile discussion on global credit markets, credit creation, what they are telling us about the global economy and why China cannot sustain global demand this time.

Economist Danielle DiMartino Booth does a virtual interview with Alfonso Peccatiello. Alfonso Peccatiello is a former Head of a $20 bn Investment Portfolio at a large bank and a passionate global macro investor. Here is a direct video link.

Below is Lacy Hunt’s chart of the U.S. loan to deposit ratio since 1973 (courtesy of John Mauldin) with the start of past recessions (marked with red dots) and the cyclical trough in credit creation (in blue), an average of 47 months later.  The latest reading in loans to deposits is the lowest of the last 50 years and has seen no recovery since the 2020 recession began 24 months ago.  This historically informative indicator suggests that while the 2020 recession was interrupted by pandemic emergency support, the downturn continues as credit cliffs follow credit highs.

Some informed insight on Putin and his thinking on Ukraine.

In an interview for the upcoming FRONTLINE documentary “Putin’s Road to War,” journalist Julia Ioffe discusses Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine — and why she believes the Russian leader is now “more dangerous than he’s ever been at any point in the last 22 years.” “What he has opened up with this invasion is unthinkable,” Ioffe tells FRONTLINE. “And because he is losing and because the sanctions and the Ukrainians are humiliating him, because he is backed into a corner, he is the most dangerous he has ever been, because it is now existential for him.” Julia Ioffe is an American journalist who was born in Russia. She is a writer for and founding partner of the media company Puck. She previously reported on politics and world affairs for The Atlantic. This interview was conducted by FRONTLINE’s Mike Wiser on March 3, 2022. It has been edited for clarity and length.  Here is a direct video link.