The US dollar and Treasury bonds outperform risky assets during “D” periods–disinflation and outright deflation. While inflation trades have won year-to-date, a return to “D” conditions remains probable in the second half. As usual, very few will be positioned proactively for it.
Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., offers his top investment themes – two long and two short strategies. Here is a direct video link.
The World Health Organization is warning that new COVID-19 infections are rising everywhere except Europe, led by a breathtaking spread in India as well as Argentina, Turkey, Brazil and Japan. This chart of the latest surge in India–the world’s sixth-largest 
economy and second-most populous country (1.38 bn people, second only to China’s 1.43bn people)–is noteworthy. These trends are not currently priced into the rosy recovery projections of financial markets. See Global Virus Resurgence threatens Vigorous Growth Momentum:
Emerging and developing economies accounted for two thirds of global growth before the pandemic and around 86% of the world’s population. The World Bank told them just this week that they must prepare for the possibility of their recoveries losing steam.
The worsening Covid situation in India should matter to investors everywhere. @markets strategist Mark Cudmore explains pic.twitter.com/DmYVmy3Wui
— Bloomberg Quicktake (@Quicktake) April 21, 2021
I have to preface this clip by saying that the Questrade ad that leads it is one of the most sexist, predatory, revolting things I have seen. Typical of suck-in-the-retail-trader-platforms, but still…a particularly heinous example of why the financial sales machine is so damaging. Encouraging people to try and win a downpayment for a home with online trading is everything that is wrong in a nutshell. In case a different ad plays when you watch the segment, here is a direct link to the Questrade propaganda I am referring to. Also, see Robinhood, Three Friends, and the Fortune that Got Away.
Doug Hoyes, licensed insolvency trustee at Hoyes, Michalos & Associates, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss the repercussions for consumers should the Bank of Canada raise rates higher than expected. He also notes spending could be tempered for some time as the hardship remains ahead of businesses and consumers. Here is a direct video link.
